GIFT Nifty Signals Muted Start as Oil Surges Amid US-Iran Diplomatic Impasse

GIFT Nifty Signals Muted Start as Oil Surges Amid US-Iran Diplomatic Impasse​

Indian equity markets are set for a cautious opening, pressured by escalating geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the negotiations between the United States and Iran. The guidance from GIFT Nifty suggests a largely flat start for the Nifty 50, reflecting global risk aversion despite mixed movement in Asian equities.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Crude Oil Price Surge​

Crude oil prices extended their sharp rebound as diplomatic efforts to secure a peace agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz hit fresh hurdles. Brent crude climbed to $88 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude reached $82.45, marking their highest levels since July 31. Both benchmark crudes had rallied approximately 5 percent on Monday.

The negotiations were complicated by President Donald Trump's response, which demanded that Iran compensate for people killed in wars, attacks, and protests, adding layers to the strategic waterway agreement.

Global Markets Face Headwinds as Uncertainty Mounts​

Wall Street indices ended slightly lower overnight as lingering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz deal weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06 percent, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.32 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11 percent. This dip followed the S&P 500's record high close on Friday.

Asian markets presented a mixed picture as investors awaited US inflation data for clues regarding the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.2 percent, and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.3 percent.

Indian Indices Steady Amid Global Volatility​

The Nifty closed at 24,583.8 points, having gained 13.2 points or 0.05 percent on the previous session. The Sensex managed a marginal gain of 43.3 points, reaching 78,542.4 (up 0.06 percent). GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,611 around 7:45 am, down 20 points or 0.08 percent, indicating a subdued start to the benchmark indices.

Expert View Forecasts Range-Bound Trading for Nifty​

Markets are expected to remain headline-driven as complexity deepens in US-Iran negotiations and clarity over any potential agreement remains elusive. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, stated that investors will likely be reluctant to take aggressive directional positions until greater certainty emerges.

The technical outlook suggests the Nifty will trade broadly within a range between 24,500 and 24,700 in the short term. The 24,600-24,700 zone is identified as the key resistance band; a sustained breakout could target the 24,800-25,000 range. Crucial immediate support remains at 24,500.

Institutional Flows Show Divergence in Equity Purchases​

Institutional investing showed marked divergence across domestic and foreign players on Monday. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended a two consecutive session buying streak, injecting nearly Rs 2,000 crore into Indian equities. Conversely, Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) snapped a three-session buying trend by selling equities worth around Rs 1,290 crore.