GIFT Nifty Signals Cautious Start for Sensex, Nifty Amid $90 Oil Spike and Middle East Tensions

GIFT Nifty Signals Cautious Start for Sensex, Nifty Amid $90 Oil Spike and Middle East Tensions​

Indian equities face a subdued opening as geopolitical instability drives crude oil prices above $90 per barrel. Global markets remain nervous despite strong buying seen by domestic indices on Friday. The ongoing international tensions are overshadowing the market sentiment, pushing investors to await company-specific performance during the June-quarter earnings season.

GIFT Nifty Forecasts Muted Open for Indian Indices​

The outlook remains measured as GIFT Nifty traded at 24,305 around 8:00 am, showing a slight dip of 44 points or 0.18 percent. This suggests that the Nifty 50 may open marginally below Friday's closing level of 24,334.30.

This preemptive caution contrasts sharply with Friday's rally, when Indian benchmark indices outperformed global peers significantly. The Sensex closed at 78,151.45, up 964.58 points or 1.25 percent. Concurrently, Nifty climbed 261.55 points, settling at 24,334.30, buoyed by robust buying in the IT, banking, and auto sectors.

Oil Soars Above $90 as Middle East Conflict Intensifies​

Fresh escalations in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels in over a month, fueling market nervousness. Brent crude saw a 2.6 percent jump to reach $90.40 per barrel, marking its strongest level since June 11. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also gained 2.3 percent at $84.39 per barrel.

These gains follow a heightened period of regional instability. Concerns over global energy supplies have intensified due to reports of severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical turmoil was fueled by continuous retaliatory strikes following the United States’ ninth consecutive day of attacks on Iran.

Global Markets Navigate Geopolitical Uncertainty and Tech Concerns​

Asian equities generally traded weaker as investors grappled with high oil prices and persistent uncertainty. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.3 percent. South Korea’s chip-heavy market fell another 4.2 percent after declining nearly 9 percent in the preceding week. China’s blue-chip stocks, however, bucked the trend by rising 1.4 percent.

Meanwhile, Wall Street extended losses on Friday amid a wider risk-off move across tech and semiconductor stocks. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.40 percent, while the S&P 500 fell 1.01 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a decline of 0.77 percent.

Expert View: Earnings to Drive Stock Selection in Market​

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, stated that investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated concerns over energy supplies. He noted that higher crude oil prices are limiting investors' appetite for aggressive directional bets.

The focus, he added, will now pivot toward company-specific opportunities as the June-quarter earnings season progresses. Investors are expected to closely monitor quarterly results, management commentary, and forward guidance from heavyweight companies. Ponmudi maintained a cautiously positive view on the Nifty, identifying 24,400 as immediate resistance. A sustained breach above this level could propel the index toward the 24,500-24,600 zone. Key support areas are defined at 24,200 and 24,000.

Institutional Flows Show DII Strength Amid FII Outflows​

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their net selling streak for a fifth consecutive session on Friday. They were noted to have sold Indian equities worth Rs 376 crore.

In contrast, Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided consistent support to the market. DIIs extended their buying momentum for the eighth straight session, purchasing shares valued at over Rs 1,000 crore.