Gold Futures Surge by ₹1,400 Amid Soft US Inflation; What Investors Must Watch

Gold Futures Surge by ₹1,400 Amid Soft US Inflation; What Investors Must Watch​

Gold and silver futures saw mixed trading on the MCX on Thursday. This followed a day where softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation eased pressure for immediate Federal Reserve rate hikes. Precious metal prices are now hinging on Producer Price Index (PPI) data expected later today to gain clarity on global inflation trends.

Domestic Market Performance and Price Movements​

Gold futures for October 2026 delivery climbed by Rs 1,400 in two sessions, reaching Rs 1,55,145 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, MCX silver futures for September 2026 delivery dipped slightly, falling by Rs 535 to trade at Rs 2,37,300 per kg.

Globally, international prices reflected strength in some precious metals. Spot gold gained 0.6% to $4,433.62 per ounce (as of 0108 GMT), following an earlier rise of about 1%. US gold futures for December delivery also rose 0.6% hitting $4,493.

Global Precious Metal Outlook and International Rates​

Spot silver managed a rally, increasing approximately 1% to reach $65.91 per ounce. This marks its highest level since June 22. Platinum appreciated by 0.3% reaching $1,762.70, while palladium rose 0.1% at $1,371.20.

The mixed performance is set against global pressures. Despite the cooling U.S. inflation numbers, which suggested less pressure for an immediate interest rate hike, these data did not offset ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Attacks on ships and the impasse in Iran-war talks continue to impact commodity markets.

Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy Watch​

The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% over the last 12 months, down from 3.5% in June. This reading was consistent with economists’ expectations.

Consequently, markets are recalibrating their expectations for Fed action. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a reduced probability of an interest rate hike at the September meeting, dropping to 40%, from approximately 54% a week earlier. Lower anticipated rates generally benefit non-yielding assets like gold by lessening the opportunity cost.

Expert View on Gold and Silver Investment Strategy​

Jigar Trivedi of IndusInd Securities offered insight into the near-term direction for MCX Gold. He suggested that profit booking was likely, with Rs 1,54,000 per 10 grams identified as a key support level for the day.

For silver investors, the rally continued as investment demand increased. While profitability might be curtailed, MCX Silver September is noted to have potential reaching Rs 2,40,000 per kg. Investors are keenly awaiting the Producer Price Index (PPI) release for further signals on easing price pressures.

Gold Prices in Indian Physical Markets​

Physical gold prices across major metropolitan areas showed slight variation based on the latest market activity. In Delhi, standard gold (22 carat) stood at Rs 1,13,688/8 grams, while pure gold (24 carat) was priced at Rs 1,24,016/8 grams.

In Mumbai, the rates were reported as Standard gold (22 carat) at Rs 1,13,568/8 grams and pure gold (24 carat) at Rs 1,23,896/8 grams. Chennai recorded prices for standard gold (22 carat) at Rs 1,13,608/8 grams and pure gold (24 carat) at Rs 1,23,936/8 grams. Hyderabad mirrored the Mumbai figures with standard gold at Rs 1,13,568/8 grams and pure gold at Rs 1,23,896/8 grams.