Silver Surges as Investors Shift Focus to US Inflation Data Amid Geopolitical Turmoil

Silver Surges as Investors Shift Focus to US Inflation Data Amid Geopolitical Turmoil​

Gold and silver prices displayed a mixed trading session on the MCX, with silver continuing its recent rally while gold sellers booked profits following sharp appreciation last week. The market narrative is currently pivoting toward critical upcoming US inflation data, which will provide crucial cues regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy outlook.

MCX silver futures for September 2026 delivery rose significantly by Rs 2,134 to reach Rs 2,33,600 per kg. Conversely, gold futures for October 2026 delivery saw a dip of Rs 360, settling at Rs 1,51,461 per 10 grams.

Global Market Trends and Fed Expectations​

The global yellow metal market showed mixed movement, as spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,322.28 per ounce (as of 0200 GMT). International silver also saw a slight decline, falling 0.2% to $63.45 per ounce.

The shift in focus is driven by upcoming US economic indicators: the Consumer Price Index is scheduled for Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index is due on Thursday. Weaker labor market data reported earlier altered expectations regarding the Fed's September policy decision. Futures markets are now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a rate hike at the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Intensifying Geopolitical Tensions​

Geopolitical instability remains a dominant factor influencing precious metal prices amid ongoing regional disputes. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Tehran and Washington were not currently engaged in talks, adding that Iran would not negotiate while the US continued to breach an interim agreement signed in June.

Tension escalated after a Saudi oil facility was attacked over the weekend. The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed they struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery on Sunday, two days subsequent to Saudi Arabia signing a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan. Furthermore, the UAE’s ADNOC reported that 15 of its vessels had been attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict commenced.

Expert Analysis: Navigating Gold and Silver Trading Ranges​

Analysts suggest defined support and resistance levels for both metals as investors await global economic clarification. For gold internationally, the metal has strong support at $4,355-$4,320 per troy ounce, with resistance being targeted in the $4,440-$4,500 range.

For silver, Prithvi Finmart places support between $62.40 and $61.60 per troy ounce, targeting resistance levels between $65.20 and $67.00. On the domestic MCX charts, gold is supported at Rs 1,50,500-1,49,100 and resisted by Rs 1,53,650-1,55,000.

Manoj Kumar Jain provided a clear strategy for traders, recommending buying gold on dips within the Rs 1,51,000-1,50,000 range with a stop loss placed below Rs 1,48,800 and targets set at Rs 1,53,000-1,54,400. For silver, the suggested buying zone is around Rs 2,29,000-2,27,000, with a stop loss below Rs 2,24,000 and targets reaching Rs 2,34,400-2,38,000.

Precious Metal Prices in Physical Markets​

Standard gold (22 carat) prices are reported across various major cities while pure gold (24 carat) rates remain steady for buyers. In Delhi, standard gold stands at Rs 1,11,872 per 8 grams, with pure gold priced at Rs 1,22,032 per 8 grams.

In Mumbai, the price of standard gold is Rs 1,11,712 per 8 grams, and pure gold registered at Rs 1,21,872 per 8 grams. Similarly, Chennai recorded standard gold at Rs 1,11,192 per 8 grams, while pure gold was priced at Rs 1,21,304 per 8 grams. Hyderabad mirrored these figures, listing both standard and pure gold at Rs 1,11,712 and Rs 1,21,872 per 8 grams respectively.