Anthropic’s $2 Trillion IPO Bet Rests on 2028 Revenue Forecast as AI Market Seeks Long-Term Valuation

Anthropic’s $2 Trillion IPO Bet Rests on 2028 Revenue Forecast as AI Market Seeks Long-Term Valuation​

As Anthropic prepares for what is anticipated to be one of the largest Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in history, Wall Street investors are looking far beyond current financials. Analysts and underwriters are positioning the valuation not on present earnings but on massive revenue forecasts projected two years into the future. Sources familiar with the company's financial outlook have indicated that Anthropic projects revenues between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028. This forward-looking projection is significantly larger than the firm's recently publicized revenue run rate of $47 billion, highlighting the scale of growth investors are being asked to fund.

Why Future Revenue Deters Current Earnings in Valuation​

For high-growth software firms that have yet to establish mature profit profiles, using enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on forecasts is a common strategy. However, looking two years ahead is an aggressive approach. It reflects the hyper-speed of Anthropic’s business expansion and the unique challenges faced by companies still spending enormously to build robust AI infrastructure.

The rapid investment pace in AI computing has led to pullbacks across many leading technology stocks, including firms comparable to Anthropic. Precedents exist among rapidly scaling tech giants; backers of Cerebras Systems cited 2028 revenue expectations during their IPO runup, while SpaceX projections extended even longer before its public listing.

Comparing Anthropic Against Market Leaders​

Public-market comparables serve as a critical benchmark for the upcoming valuation process, offering investors a lens through which to view companies with similar growth profiles and business models. Palantir is currently valued at 53 times its expected revenue, positioning it as one of Wall Street's most highly valued stocks.

LSEG data shows that both SpaceX and Cloudflare trade at 41.6 times their expected 2026 revenue. Each company offers a distinct comparison point. Palantir represents the standard for investors evaluating high-growth businesses tied to AI. Cloudflare provides a reference point for high-growth software and infrastructure, while SpaceX illustrates valuation based on immense future scale expectations rather than current performance.

Growth Trajectory Versus Intensive Spending Costs​

Established companies are typically valued using earnings or EBITDA, providing a clear view of the business's economics. For Anthropic, however, current EBITDA does not fully capture the massive economic scope investors anticipate at scale. The company is currently incurring substantial costs related to GPU consumption, model training, inference, and accelerated hiring efforts.

These expenses are essential components of rapid expansion but analysts suggest they should become a smaller percentage of revenue as the business matures. Anthropic's internal trajectory supports this view: its revenue run rate was approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025, rising sharply to over $47 billion by May. Furthermore, the company has projected Q2 2026 revenue of at least $10.9 billion, more than double the previous quarter, while it is on track for a first quarterly operating profit of $559 million.

The Bets: Operational Efficiency and Investor Caution​

The valuation is fundamentally predicated on the expectation that Anthropic’s current intensive spending is funding a business that will eventually generate significantly higher revenue and margins. As technology advances, training and inference costs could become far more efficient, while operational expenses are expected to shrink as the company scales globally.

David Merkel, a principal at Aleph Investments, offered a nuanced view of the high valuation potential. He stated, "Could they (Anthropic) get a $2 trillion valuation, yeah they could," though he added that the critical question remains whether that level of valuation can be maintained over time. These questions underscore the speculative nature of pricing an AI company whose future productivity and cost efficiency are still unfolding.