India Sugar Production 2025-26 Revised Down 5.57% to 32.40 Million Tonnes: ISMA
India’s sugar production for the 2025-26 marketing year has been revised downward by 5.57 per cent to 32.40 million tonnes, according to the latest estimate released by the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association on Wednesday.The third advance estimate follows a previous projection of 34.35 million tonnes. Despite the downward revision, production remains significantly higher than last year’s output of 29.62 million tonnes.
Lower Yields in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh Impact Output
The industry body attributed the revision primarily to lower sugarcane yields in leading producing states such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.Net production in Maharashtra is now estimated at 10.6 million tonnes, while Uttar Pradesh is projected at 9.25 million tonnes. Karnataka’s output stands at 4.84 million tonnes. Although these figures have been revised downward, they are still higher compared to last year’s levels.
In Uttar Pradesh, the lower yields are linked to an ongoing variety replacement programme. However, recovery rates in the state have shown improvement. Maharashtra and Karnataka experienced early flowering of sugarcane due to excessive rainfall, which reduced yields. Higher crushing rates also shortened harvesting windows, further impacting output.
Net Availability Rises After Ethanol Diversion
Out of the total estimated production, 3.1 million tonnes of sugar will be diverted for ethanol manufacturing. After accounting for this diversion, net sugar availability is projected at 29.3 million tonnes, up from 26.12 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year.With an opening stock of 5 million tonnes, total sugar availability for the season is estimated at 34.3 million tonnes. This comfortably exceeds the projected domestic consumption of 28.3 million tonnes.
Exports and Closing Stock Outlook
The association has forecast sugar exports at 700,000 tonnes for the 2025-26 season. Closing stocks are expected to stand at 5.3 million tonnes.Planting activity for the 2026-27 season has improved in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which is likely to support comfortable opening stock levels of 5.3 million tonnes going forward.
Estimate Based on Field Data and Weather Trends
The revised estimates are based on comprehensive inputs including field visits, weather data, yield assessments, recovery rates, and sugarcane crushing trends across key producing regions.The updated outlook signals that despite weather-related challenges and regional yield variations, India is set to maintain adequate sugar supplies to meet domestic demand while sustaining limited exports during the 2025-26 marketing year.
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