Monsoon Status Plummets Amid 35 Percent Rainfall Deficit; Experts Warn of Record Low Storage Levels

Monsoon Status Plummets Amid 35 Percent Rainfall Deficit; Experts Warn of Record Low Storage Levels​

India is facing a challenging start to the monsoon season as rainfall deficits widen across major regions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) data confirms that the nation received only 44 mm of rain in the first 16 days of June, against a normal requirement of 68.1 mm. This performance translates to a significant 35 percent deficit so far this month.

The monsoon’s advancement has been inconsistent across the country. While Kerala, the initial port of call for the rains, received moisture on June 4, progress elsewhere remains patchy. For western and central India, the wait for sufficient rainfall continues to intensify concerns among agriculturalists and water management experts.

Regional Rainfall Deficits Reported by IMD​

The weather data highlights uneven performance across all meteorological regions. Of the four monitored areas, only the Northwest region showed resilience, registering 5 percent above normal rainfall during the first half of June.

However, other crucial regions registered substantial deficits. Central India recorded a severe deficit of 61 percent. The East and Northeast Indian states faced a rainfall shortfall of 43 percent below normal. Furthermore, the southern peninsula was also affected, with rainfall registering 14 percent below normal.

IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that favorable conditions for the monsoon’s advance into western India might emerge in the next four to five days, adding a layer of cautious optimism. He noted that the delayed advancement is particularly critical for areas like Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Water Storage Levels Fall Amid Weak Monsoon​

The slow progression of the monsoon has had immediate consequences on water resource management. Analysts have pointed out that the lack of consistent rainfall means water storage levels across several major reservoirs remain lower than they were at this time last year.

Data from Central Water Commission shows critical pressure points in reservoir capacity. As of June 11, water levels in 166 key reservoirs had fallen to 28 percent of their total capacity. This represents a decline compared to the 30 percent level recorded just eight days prior on June 4.

Of the total live storage capacity measuring 183.56 billion cubic meters, the reservoirs held 51.92 billion cubic metres of water as of June 11. The Barclays report added that these levels require close monitoring given the prevailing weather patterns.

Economic Risks and Monsoon Outlook​

The national economy remains heavily dependent on the monsoon rains over the next three months. These seasonal rains are critical, providing nearly 70 percent of the moisture needed for cultivating staple crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.

The forecast from the weather department paints a sober picture, projecting that India is heading towards its weakest monsoon season in three years. This projection includes below-normal rainfall expected for northwest India, central India, and the western peninsula.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra highlighted the heightened risk for vulnerable regions. Given that irrigation facilities are relatively scarce in areas spanning Gujarat to Odisha, north Andhra Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, the impact of any below-normal rainfall in these specific regions could be significantly amplified. Barclays added that the developing El Nino forecast poses an additional risk of low precipitation throughout the June to September season.