Gold Jumps Near ₹1.5 Lakh as Rupee Weakness Counters Dollar Strength; Market Awaits US Jobs Data Catalyst

Gold Jumps Near ₹1.5 Lakh as Rupee Weakness Counters Dollar Strength; Market Awaits US Jobs Data Catalyst​

Domestic gold prices witnessed a significant rally on June 22, surging by approximately ₹2,000 to reach ₹1,49,200 per 10 grams in the MCX. This domestic gain occurred despite movements in international markets and is being closely monitored ahead of crucial US economic reports. The precious metals market remains highly volatile as investors brace for key data releases from the United States concerning employment.

The international spot gold price also registered a strong rebound, surpassing $4,210 per ounce and gaining nearly $55 on Comex. Meanwhile, domestic MCX gold futures for the August contract traded marginally higher by 0.97 percent at ₹1,48,633 per 10 grams. Silver continued its upward trajectory, with July contract futures surging 2.26 percent to reach ₹2,38,452 per kilogram.

Precious Metals Outlook Ahead of US Economic Data​

Precious metals prices are currently underpinned by the weakness of the rupee against the dollar, which recently slipped 0.5 percent to 94.7. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that while currency movements influence price action, the focus is intently shifting toward this week's US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data.

The Augmont Bullion report provided context on recent market drivers, citing Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as a defining event. The geopolitical backdrop also added complexity, specifically noting the interim ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran that took effect on June 19.

For near-term trading, the report estimates support for gold at $4,050 to $4,100 on Comex, with resistance set at $4,250. A decisive break above $4,250 could potentially drive prices toward $4,350. In silver, market analysis suggests a support level near $60-$61, testing resistance at $67 before a potential move towards $70.

Global and Domestic Market Dynamics Driving Gold Prices​

The international sentiment is heavily influenced by future inflation indicators. The Augmont report highlighted that the May PCE print, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge due on June 25, remains the primary catalyst for this week. An upside surprise in core PCE would likely reinforce rate-hike expectations, potentially adding pressure to gold prices.

In contrast, domestic demand faced challenges related to imports. India's gold imports declined sharply month-on-month by 39 percent, totaling $3.4 billion in May 2026. This volume was estimated at 25 to 30 tonnes, falling short of the two-year monthly average of 59 tonnes.

Impact of Import Duties and ETF Flows​

Dr Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, attributed the compression of physical demand primarily to the import duty hike implemented in May. This hike increased the tax from 6 percent to 15 percent, which is currently driving domestic prices up by approximately 13.2 percent year-to-date.

Despite lower imports, the Gold ETFs witnessed a positive shift in early June. While ETFs recorded record net outflows of ₹7.25 billion in May, flows turned decidedly positive between June 1 and 11, registering net inflows of ₹16.31 billion. This inflow suggests resilient underlying investor appetite within the domestic market.

Future Indicators for Consumer Sentiment​

Analyst Chainani advised investors to closely monitor several key developments going forward. First, the normalization process is indicated by the narrowing trajectory of domestic price discounts, which have fallen from $150 per ounce post-hike to approximately $25 per ounce by mid-June.

Second, the introduction of ETF investment caps by major fund houses could structurally redirect large investor flows towards secondary markets. Third, investors must watch for seasonal demand recovery beginning in August, coinciding with the festive and wedding season. Recycling volumes and old-gold exchange activity will also serve as important barometers of consumer sentiment through the lean June to July period.