Sensex Surges, Nifty Races Higher: US-Iran Talks and Q4 Earnings Drive Indian Rally

Sensex Surges, Nifty Races Higher: US-Iran Talks and Q4 Earnings Drive Indian Rally​

Markets Brace for Major Catalysts Amid Geopolitical Calm​

Investors are keeping a sharp focus on key catalysts expected in the coming weeks. Central to market sentiment are the ongoing US-Iran peace talks, the trajectory of global crude oil prices, and the flow of Q4 FY26 earnings commentary. Analysts suggest these factors will define market direction. Market participants believe that softer crude oil prices and improving global cues are providing essential support to the current recovery momentum.

Indices Close Strong Following Global Sentiment Uptick​

Indian equity markets extended their uptrend for the second consecutive week, closing the week with notable gains. This upward momentum was supported by an overall improvement in global sentiment. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement underpinned market confidence. Stable domestic fundamentals further bolstered the buying momentum across indices.

The frontliners showed strong performance, with Nifty and Sensex gaining over 1 per cent each. They closed at 24,353 and 78,493, respectively. Last week, indices maintained an upward bias despite intermittent volatility, with the broader markets outperforming the key frontline indices.

Global Triggers: Oil Prices and Middle East Tensions​

The market's resilience was partly attributed to temporary easing of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. This helped Brent crude correct towards the $86 level before stabilizing in the $92–93 range.

Analysts view easing Middle East tensions as supportive for the broader uptrend. They believe that continued stability or further moderation in crude prices could provide a meaningful tailwind for Indian equities and support the broader macro outlook.

Divergent Institutional Flows Signal Caution​

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) showed early signs of stabilization late in the week, becoming net buyers across the final three sessions. However, on a cumulative basis for the week, flows remained marginally negative, standing at approximately Rs 250 crore. This suggests investors are waiting for sustained inflows to confirm a complete reversal in sentiment.

In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) saw some profit-taking. While they had been providing consistent support, they turned net sellers in the final sessions. On a weekly basis, DII outflows stood at approximately Rs 6,300 crore.

Technical Outlook and Critical Resistance Zones​

From a technical standpoint, the market is consolidating but maintaining an upward structure. Nifty is currently seen consolidating within the 24,100–24,400 range. Immediate resistance is noted near 24,400, while support holds around 24,000. A sustained breakout above 24,400 could extend the rally toward the 24,800–25,000 range.

For the banking sector, the 56,800–57,000 band remains a critical resistance zone for Bank Nifty. Only a sustained breakout above this range could potentially push the index toward 57,500–58,000 levels.

Key Sectors and Macroeconomic Events Ahead​

Market participants suggest that portfolio allocation may remain tilted towards fundamentally strong large-cap stocks. Selective participation in broader market opportunities is also advisable. Sectorally, energy and metal & mining sectors may continue to outperform. Other sectors, however, could participate on a rotational basis.

The economic calendar is set to deliver vital data. Infrastructure output data for March is scheduled for release on April 20. This will be followed by critical PMI data for Manufacturing, Services, and Composite, due on April 23, providing deep insights into economic momentum.

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