Quick-Commerce Market set to Surge past $60 Billion as India Expands Beyond Grocery Essentials

Quick-Commerce Market set to Surge past $60 Billion as India Expands Beyond Grocery Essentials​

India’s rapid delivery ecosystem is on the cusp of massive growth, with the quick-commerce market projected to nearly fivefold by FY31. According to a report by Anand Rathi Research, the segment, currently valued at $11.3 billion in FY26, is expected to reach approximately $60 billion as urban consumers integrate rapid delivery into their daily lives across diverse product categories.

The Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of quick-commerce stood at $1.6 billion in FY23. Anand Rathi projects a significant Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of about 23.3 percent between FY26 and FY31, confirming the sector’s explosive potential. This growth is expected to contribute 9 to 11 percent of the incremental expansion witnessed in India's overall retail market over the next five years.

Expanding Horizons Beyond Groceries​

The next phase of quick-commerce expansion involves moving well beyond staple groceries. While food formed the foundation of the sector’s initial rise, future growth is tied to non-grocery product sales.

Non-grocery items are forecast to account for 39 to 44 percent of quick-commerce sales by FY31, up from 29 percent in FY26. These categories include personal care products, stationery, electronics, and various household goods that platforms store at local fulfilment centres.

This diversification offers a clear path for increased profitability. Non-grocery segments typically provide better unit economics compared to commodity staple products, helping platforms improve margins.

Retailers Leverage Wider Assortment and Orders​

Major players are already witnessing this strategic shift towards varied offerings. Swiggy’s Instamart reported that the average order value rose 33 percent year-on-year in the March quarter, reaching Rs 700. This increase was driven by a sustained rise in non-grocery sales and larger customer baskets.

Instamart recorded a quarterly gross order value jump of 68.8 percent to Rs 7,881 crore, while its monthly transacting users climbed to 13.3 million. The platform maintained an operational network of 1,143 dark stores across 129 cities at the end of March.

Swiggy aims to position Instamart as a convenience-led retailer offering "everyday upgrades" rather than strictly limiting service to daily necessities. The company's assortment has expanded significantly, now covering about 50,000 stock keeping units (SKUs) in its FY26 shareholder letter.

User Base Projections and Market Deepening​

Anand Rathi anticipates a vast increase in the user base across the quick-commerce segment. They project that the average number of monthly transacting users will climb to between 105 and 115 million by FY31. This represents substantial growth from an estimated 36 to 38 million users in FY26, compared to 5.6 million in FY23.

The brokerage attributes this exponential user rise to broadening product availability, increasing order volumes, rising customer engagement, and the institutionalisation of quick-commerce as a routine purchasing channel.

Competition Shifts into Smaller Cities​

Initially dominated by networks of dark stores near affluent neighbourhoods like Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, and Bengaluru, competition is now rapidly spreading geographically. Established e-commerce players are intensifying their presence in smaller towns.

Blinkit has operated over 2,200 stores in India by June, while Swiggy's Instamart holds over 1,100 locations. Flipkart has also reached a network of 1,000 quick-commerce stores and plans to expand this to 1,500 soon. Amazon is planning to take its Now rapid delivery service to 300 Indian cities from more than 15.

The shift towards broader markets is evident as Flipkart reports that smaller cities account for 70 percent of its presence across more than 130 cities, contrasting with the sector's earlier concentration in major metros.

Regulatory Scrutiny Amid Rapid Expansion​

While growth remains strong, the sector faces increasing regulatory scrutiny regarding delivery practices and worker safety. In January, the Union government intervened, asking Blinkit, Zepto, and Swiggy to cease advertising grocery deliveries as a "10-minute" service due to concerns over rider pressure and safety.

Platforms responded by modifying their branding away from the fixed 10-minute promise. However, they continue offering short delivery windows through their neighbourhood fulfilment networks. The Anand Rathi report suggests that long-term sector health will depend on continuous consumer experience improvements and the increasing utility of these platforms for daily needs.