New Delhi, April 6 Precious metal prices in the domestic markets are expected to remain moderately bullish in the fiscal year 2026-27 as geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and growing recession risks globally are likely to bolster demand for safe-haven assets, even as elevated interest rates may limit sharp gains.
On the domestic front, during FY26, silver futures surged by Rs 1,41,431, or 142.2 percent, from Rs 99,461 per kg recorded on April 1, 2025, while gold soared by Rs 60,258, or 67 percent, from Rs 90,503 per 10 grams recorded during the same period.
This outlook follows one of the strongest years for precious metals in decades. Silver surged more than 142 percent during FY26, while gold rallied around 67 percent, driven by Trump's tariff war, geopolitical tensions, robust central bank purchases, tightening supply conditions, and global economic uncertainty.
"The outlook for gold and silver for fiscal 2026-27 will remain moderately bullish. Since the global economy is going through a rough patch due to geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and the fear of a global recession, demand for safe-haven assets will rise," Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, told
Despite the strong gains, bullion prices witnessed sharp corrections toward the end of the fiscal. In March alone, gold prices declined by Rs 11,343, or 7 percent, while silver slumped by Rs 41,752, or 15 percent, on the Multi Commodity Exchange.
On recent price corrections, he said, "Historically, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will likely increase in the second phase of war situations when the dollar gains are limited."
However, Makda cautioned that higher-for-longer interest rates from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks may limit aggressive upside in bullion prices.
Makda attributed silver's exceptional performance in FY26 to a structural supply deficit that persisted for five consecutive years, record demand from the solar photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, and a surge in institutional investment into ETFs, which amplified price movements in the relatively smaller silver market.
Looking ahead, Makda expects silver to remain moderately bullish in FY27, with domestic prices likely to trade between Rs 2.75-3.5 lakh per kilogram, depending on currency fluctuations.
In international exchanges, the white metal prices may range between USD 85 and USD 100 per ounce, he said.
Makda also expects central bank demand to remain a key support for gold prices in FY27.
He said this trend is expected to continue in FY27, with demand averaging between 750-850 tonnes in 2026 and likely to remain the same in 2027.
"Economies such as India, Poland, and Turkey will continue to lead the charge as they are replacing US dollar reserves with gold to bolster monetary sovereignty and hedge against geopolitical sanctions," he added.
On crude oil, Makda projected a shift towards surplus in FY27 due to rising non-OPEC production and slowing global demand growth.
"The anticipated drop in oil prices may negatively impact precious metals, particularly gold and silver, by reducing inflationary pressures that typically support these assets. Additionally, softer oil prices may strengthen the rupee, making gold and silver cheaper domestically," he said.
Regarding the US dollar, Makda expects the currency to remain volatile amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy.
However, he cautioned that a stronger dollar could cap gains and trigger corrections, particularly in silver.
Overall, Makda said geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and industrial consumption will continue to underpin bullion prices in FY27, despite intermittent volatility.
Disclaimer: Due care and diligence have been taken in compiling and presenting news and market-related content. However, errors or omissions may arise despite such efforts.
The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Readers are advised to rely on their own assessment and judgment and consult appropriate financial advisers, if required, before taking any investment-related decisions.