Plunge in Monsoon Progress Hits Agriculture: Kharif Sowing Drops 22.7% Amid Widespread Water Stress

Plunge in Monsoon Progress Hits Agriculture: Kharif Sowing Drops 22.7% Amid Widespread Water Stress​

A significant decline in agricultural planting has been recorded as rainfall deficits widen and reservoir levels fall across key cropping states. The monsoon's progress remains uneven, leading to a substantial drop in kharif sowing compared to the previous year.

The area under kharif crops stood at 182.72 lakh hectares as of June 25, marking a sharp decline from 236.46 lakh hectares one year ago. This shortfall amounts to 53.74 lakh hectares and impacts multiple major crop categories, including cotton, rice, oilseeds, and pulses.

Deep Dive into Crop Acreage Declines​

Oilseeds saw the steepest contraction in acreage, dropping by 19.42 lakh hectares to reach 16.99 lakh hectares from 36.41 lakh hectares a year ago. Within this segment, soybean sowing has been particularly affected, declining by 13.05 lakh hectares. Groundnut also recorded a decline of 6.42 lakh hectares.

Cotton acreage weakened by 15.70 lakh hectares, settling at 29.66 lakh hectares from the previous year's level. Similarly, rice sowing fell by 8.65 lakh hectares to 25.75 lakh hectares. Pulse acreage also registered a downturn of 6.53 lakh hectares, with arhar and urad being prominent among those affected.

Rainfall Deficit Worsens Agricultural Outlook​

Rainfall distribution remains inconsistent across the country. While there are forecasts for heavy rainfall in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Odisha, and Vidarbha, heatwave conditions continue in Delhi, Haryana, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. These conditions have hindered sowing progress in several northern regions.

As of June 29, the rainfall deficit reached a high mark of 43 percent. Furthermore, 48 percent of the country is currently deficient in rain, while another 26 percent are facing large deficiencies. This weak trend adds considerable stress to already challenged farmers.

Reservoir Levels Indicate Severe Water Scarcity​

Live storage across 166 major reservoirs was observed to be below last year's levels. Reservoirs are currently filled to 26.4 percent of capacity, which is notably lower than the previous period when they were at 36 percent. This figure also falls short of the five-year average for these water bodies.

Southern and eastern regions are showing acute stress due to low storage. Southern region reservoirs stand at 20.8 percent, less than half of last year's 44.7 percent. Karnataka’s reservoirs are at 14.7 percent against 48.6 percent a year ago, while Tamil Nadu's storage dropped to 34.3 percent from 81 percent.

The impact is clear in the east, with Odisha's reservoirs only 15.3 percent full compared to 22.4 percent last year. Lower reservoir levels significantly reduce the available irrigation support for critical crops like paddy, cotton, and pulses. If rainfall remains weak through July, concerns are likely to surge over crop output, rural incomes, and food inflation, particularly for edible oils and pulses.