New Delhi, April 8 – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday estimated India's real GDP growth at 7.6 per cent for FY26 under a new GDP series, while highlighting emerging risks from geopolitical disruptions.
The FY26 growth reflects resilience driven by strong services activity, manufacturing expansion, and robust domestic demand.
For FY27, the Central Bank has projected growth at 6.9 per cent, indicating a moderation as external risks and cost pressures begin to build, said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra after the MPC meeting.
The GDP growth for Q1 FY27 has been revised to 6.8 per cent from 6.9 percent, while Q2 FY27 growth has been lowered to 6.7 per cent from 7 per cent amid global headwinds due to the Iran war.
"Global growth faces increasing downside risks as the sharp rise in energy prices has stoked inflation fears," said Malhotra.
The GDP growth stood at 7.8 per cent in the December quarter of FY26, from 8.4 per cent in the preceding quarter.
The RBI expects the revival in private sector investment to sustain on the back of high capacity utilization. Also, the outlook for food prices remains comfortable in the near term, said the Governor.
Overall CPI inflation for FY27 is projected at 4.6 per cent. For Q1, it is estimated at 4 per cent; 4.4 per cent for Q2; 5.2 per cent for Q3; and 4.7 per cent for Q4.
Malhotra further said that "we will ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system to meet the productive requirements of the Indian economy."
As of April 3, India's forex reserves stood at $697.1 billion.
"Net FDI showed improvement on a small base of last year. India remains an attractive destination for greenfield FDI projects," said the Governor.
The RBI expects the revival in private sector investment to sustain on the back of high capacity utilization.
Disclaimer: Due care and diligence have been taken in compiling and presenting news and market-related content. However, errors or omissions may arise despite such efforts.
The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Readers are advised to rely on their own assessment and judgment and consult appropriate financial advisers, if required, before taking any investment-related decisions.