New Delhi, February 15
India’s stock market is set for a cautious week ahead as macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments, and rising concerns over artificial intelligence related disruptions are expected to shape investor sentiment. Ongoing volatility is likely to keep participants watchful, with foreign investor activity and currency movements also playing a crucial role.
Global Cues and Fed Policy in Focus
With tariff concerns easing and the domestic earnings season drawing to a close on a mixed trend, markets are expected to take direction from global signals. These include US labour market data and shifting expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s policy path.Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd., said that in the near term, market focus will largely depend on global cues, even as overall sentiment remains cautious. He noted that investors are monitoring global AI driven disruptions and geopolitical risks, while improved valuations and constructive GDP forecasts may help sustain FII inflows.
Sectoral Rotation Likely Amid IT and Metal Headwinds
According to Vinod Nair, persistent structural and external headwinds in information technology and metals could lead to a shift in market leadership. Domestically oriented sectors such as banking, automobiles, and select consumption driven segments may attract attention.However, broader indices are expected to remain range bound until clearer macroeconomic and policy signals emerge.
Weekly Market Performance: Sensex and Nifty Decline
On a weekly basis, the 30 share BSE Sensex dropped 953.64 points, or 1.14 per cent, while the NSE Nifty fell 222.6 points, or 0.86 per cent. Both benchmark indices closed the week in the red.A global sell off in technology stocks and concerns over artificial intelligence led disruptions weighed on sentiment. Geopolitical tensions further impacted market breadth, resulting in sectoral volatility and widespread selling pressure.
Key Economic Indicators in Spotlight
Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd., said that markets will monitor WPI inflation and balance of trade data for signals on price trends and external sector dynamics. He added that key indicators due include HSBC flash PMI readings for manufacturing, services, and composite, along with bank loan growth and foreign exchange reserves data.These releases, Mishra noted, will be evaluated for confirmation of growth momentum amid volatile global cues and continued repricing in technology stocks.
Investors will also watch the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled for release on Thursday for cues on the US central bank’s monetary policy outlook.
Rupee Movement and Global Impact
The rupee consolidated within a narrow range and settled 5 paise lower at 90.66 against the US dollar on Friday. Strong US jobs data reduced expectations of near term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, putting pressure on global risk assets and contributing to domestic market weakness, Mishra said.In the previous week, markets had drawn support from favourable developments in the India US trade deal and renewed FII inflows, which boosted overall risk appetite. Momentum extended on supportive global cues and rupee appreciation, although profit booking emerged as third quarter earnings delivered mixed signals, Nair added.
As the new week begins, investors are expected to remain vigilant, balancing supportive domestic factors with persistent global uncertainties.
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