New Delhi, April 9 – India’s online retail market is projected to reach approximately $65–66 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2025, with an annual growth of over 20 per cent, reaching $170–180 billion by 2030. This would capture roughly one in ten retail dollars, according to a report released on Thursday.
The report, from Bain and Company and Flipkart, stated that e-retail gross merchandise value grew by 19–21 per cent in terms of value.
The report noted that growth was accelerated throughout the year, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and consumer sentiment.
In 2025, private consumption growth rose from 8 per cent (2022–24) to 10.5 per cent, driven by GST cuts, income tax relief, easing inflation, and lower lending rates.
This momentum led to a second-half growth of 22–24 per cent and an estimated 23–25 per cent growth in Q1 2026, reflecting a broader revival in consumption and discretionary spending.
"Quick commerce" (delivery in less than 30 minutes) has doubled annually over the past two years, reaching $10–11 billion GMV in 2025 and is expected to reach $65–$70 billion by 2030, the report noted.
However, traditional e-retail will continue to anchor the overall e-retail market with 60-65 per cent share in 2030.
India is emerging as a critical global consumption engine, poised to capture 1 in 8 incremental consumption dollars over the next five years.
The shopper base more than doubled over the last five years to 290–300 million in 2025, supported by rapid seller ecosystem expansion and deeper geographic penetration.
Gen Z represented 40–45 per cent of e-retail shoppers and contributed about half of incremental e-retail orders in 2025, with spend per shopper growing 2.5 times faster than other cohorts in metros.
Gen Z demonstrated distinct shopping preferences across categories like lifestyle, beauty and electronics, such as influencer-led trend discovery on social media, immersive videos/feeds, and use of instant credit.
"Shopping behavior in quick commerce is distinct; high-intent shopping missions drive a higher incidence of search, faster checkout velocity, and conversions. Sessions last less than five minutes, half the duration of traditional e-commerce journeys," said Manan Bhasin, Partner at Bain & Company.
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