Currency Markets Watch RBI MPC Meeting and Crude Prices

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New Delhi, April 6 – The Indian rupee opened 10 paise higher at 93 against the US dollar on Monday, as traders continued to unwind speculative positions in the offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market.

The domestic currency was trading at 93 per dollar in early trade, compared to its previous close of 93.10. The currency and fixed income markets remained closed on April 3 due to Good Friday.

The rupee has gained around 2 per cent over the past week following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) measures to curb volatility and crack down on excessive speculation in offshore markets.

The central bank’s recent directives – among the strictest in over a decade – have prompted banks to unwind arbitrage positions, impacting the multi-billion-dollar offshore market.

Traders are also closely watching Brent crude prices and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows, both of which continue to weigh on sentiment.

Attention will now shift to the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which began on Monday and will conclude on April 8. Economists largely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged.

Analysts said the dollar/rupee pair is currently trading in the 92.80–93 range after cooling from recent highs near 94.80, supported by the RBI intervention.

A move above 93 could push the pair towards the 93.50–93.80 zone, while immediate support is seen at 92.60–92.40. The near-term trend remains slightly positive, though direction will depend on dollar strength and global risk sentiment, according to analysts.

On the global front, market participants are tracking crude oil prices amid rising geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump set a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over supply disruptions.

The strategic shipping route, which handles over 20 per cent of global crude flows, has remained largely closed since late February following the escalation in conflict.

Brent crude was trading around $110 per barrel, up nearly 1 per cent from the previous session.

Meanwhile, domestic equity benchmarks were trading in the red, with the Sensex falling 529 points or 0.72 per cent to 72,790, while the Nifty declined 150 points or 0.66 per cent to 22,561 in early trade.
 

Disclaimer: Due care and diligence have been taken in compiling and presenting news and market-related content. However, errors or omissions may arise despite such efforts.

The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Readers are advised to rely on their own assessment and judgment and consult appropriate financial advisers, if required, before taking any investment-related decisions.

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arbitrage brent crude currency exchange financial markets foreign institutional investors geopolitical risk india indian rupee market sentiment monetary policy nifty nse sensex reserve bank of india rupee volatility strait of hormuz us dollar
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