Sensex, Nifty Face Flat Opening as High Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

Sensex, Nifty Face Flat Opening as High Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment​

Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open with little to no change on Friday morning. This cautious stance comes as GIFT Nifty indicates a flat start, reflecting a watchful mood among investors awaiting critical first-quarter earnings from market heavyweights.

The GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,085 around 8:00 am, down 10 points or 0.04 percent. This suggests the Nifty 50 could open near its Thursday close of 24,072.75. The market follows a volatile session where gains were surrendered to end largely flat, with the Sensex edging up 1.44 points to 77,186.87 and the Nifty slipping 5.75 points, or 0.02 percent.

Earnings Calendar and Global Market Pressures​

Market participants are adopting a wary stance ahead of an intense earnings season. Reliance Industries is slated to report its June-quarter results after market hours on Friday, while HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are expected to release their quarterly figures over the weekend. These reports from index heavyweights are anticipated to dictate the prevailing sentiment for upcoming trading sessions.

On the global front, Asian equities began Friday on a subdued note as continued weakness in semiconductor stocks pressured regional markets. The Nikkei fell 2.8 percent, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan saw a marginal decline. US equity futures also signaled a softer start, with Nasdaq futures declining 0.7 percent and S&P 500 futures falling 0.4 percent.

Semiconductor Sell-Off and Crude Oil Surge​

Investors have continued to rotate away from semiconductor stocks despite an encouraging US earnings season. This rotation has left Asian markets particularly vulnerable due to their significant exposure to chipmakers. Overnight, the Nasdaq declined 1.47 percent and the S&P 500 lost 0.51 percent as memory-chip makers including SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and Intel posted sharp losses.

Simultaneously, crude oil prices remain elevated following renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran. This conflict has disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude up around 1.3 percent to $85.28 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate traded near $80 per barrel, with both benchmarks on track for a nearly 12 percent weekly gain, the strongest performance in approximately three months.

Analyst Outlook and Institutional Flows​

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, maintains a cautious outlook for Indian equities due to escalating geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices, and continued rupee weakness. He noted that recent US airstrikes on Iran have heightened uncertainty, increasing the risk of volatility across global financial markets.

Technical analysis suggests the Nifty faces resistance near 24,200. A sustained move above this level could improve bullish momentum toward the 24,300-24,400 zone. Conversely, 24,000 remains a key psychological support level; holding above it is essential to preserve the recovery structure, while a break below could trigger selling toward the 23,900-23,800 range.

Institutional activity shows a clear divide in recent trends. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, offloading Indian equities worth Rs 4,200 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors have sustained a buying streak for seven straight sessions, purchasing shares worth Rs 2,986 crore.