MCX Crude Oil Plunges Towards Weekly Losses Despite US-Iran Ceasefire Optimism: Navigating Key Price Zones

Analyzing Global Crude Oil Trends Amid Geopolitical Tensions​

Brent and WTI crude oil contracts have significantly declined, losing 11% this week so far. This marks the biggest weekly drop recorded since June 2025. Despite some localized surges, the broader market sentiment remains cautious.

On Friday, MCX crude oil prices saw a rally of over 3%, driven by gains seen in international oil rates. This was partly fueled by ongoing supply concerns, particularly regarding tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

The MCX crude oil price for April futures contracts opened higher by ₹ 267, translating to a 0.98% increase, starting at ₹ 9,200 per barrel. Oil prices managed to surge up to 3.23% at a high of ₹ 9,222 a barrel.

Internationally, the trends reflected this mixed activity. Brent crude futures surged 1% to $96.86 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.79% to $98.64 a barrel.

Geopolitical Triggers Shaping Oil Market Expectations​

The underlying narrative for crude oil remains tied to evolving geopolitical stability. The market faces headwinds from signs of easing tensions linked to a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. Israel's signaling of a potential diplomatic opening adds another layer of complexity.

A Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities noted that while Israeli strikes on Lebanon and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz previously strained diplomatic efforts, the agreement between the US and Iran points toward declines.

However, the market's immediate focus is heavily placed on the outcomes of the US-Iran talks. The analyst suggested that if these talks fail, crude oil prices could appreciate. Conversely, a successful peace dialogue is expected to trigger a correction in oil prices.

Key Supply Constraints Remain a Concern​

Concerns over critical waterways persist despite ceasefire talks. US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran regarding the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, criticizing its management of oil flows.

The crucial waterway experienced significant disruption, with ship traffic remaining well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday. This was attributed to Tehran asserting control by advising ships to adhere strictly to its territorial waters, according to Reuters reporting.

Furthermore, recent attacks on Saudi energy facilities have curtailed key supply metrics. The Saudi state news agency SPA reported that oil production capacity was cut by approximately 600,000 barrels per day. Throughput on the East-West Pipeline was similarly affected, dropping by about 700,000 bpd.

Expert Analysis: Determining the Crude Oil Price Trajectory​

Analysts suggest a bearish outlook remains predominant for the short term. For the MCX crude oil price, the expected support zone is identified between ₹ 8,800 and ₹ 9,000. Resistance levels are currently sighted at ₹ 9,250 to ₹ 9,400.

Looking at WTI crude oil specifically, support is predicted in the $90 to $95 range, while resistance is positioned between $100 and $110.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, offered a counter-view for potential uptrends. A sustained move above ₹ 9,200 could push MCX prices toward the ₹ 9,400 - ₹ 9,500 range, with potential further tests up to ₹ 9,600 - ₹ 9,800.

Conversely, on the downside, a breakdown below ₹ 9,000 could extend the decline toward ₹ 8,800 - ₹ 8,600, with potential downside reaching ₹ 8,200. The overall structure is viewed as transitioning from a bullish phase toward a consolidation pattern, moving past earlier sharp spikes.