New Delhi, April 11 – American billionaire and investor Ray Dalio has stated that the most critical and consequential phase of the Iran conflict is yet to come, warning that a decisive "final battle" for control of the Strait of Hormuz will determine not just the outcome of the current war, but also the long-term credibility of American power and the stability of the dollar-led financial order that underpins it.
The founder of Bridgewater Associates, Dalio, shared an article on X, highlighting that all parties involved understand that the final battle has not yet been fought.
"Both sides know that the final battle, which will clearly determine which side won and which side lost, is still ahead," he said.
He dismissed the prospect of a negotiated settlement outright, stating that agreements in this context are "worthless" and that whatever happens next is likely to be "the worst phase of the conflict."
Dalio framed the entire conflict around a single, easily measurable test – whether the United States can guarantee safe commercial passage through Hormuz.
He said there is "near-universal agreement" among government leaders and geopolitical experts that any outcome short of this, including one that leaves Iran with even residual negotiating power over the strait, constitutes a US defeat.
He warned that the consequences of such a defeat would be severe and self-reinforcing, like damage to Gulf allies, disruption to global energy markets, erosion of allied confidence, and a challenge to the dollar's reserve-currency status as capital flows shift toward the perceived winner.
Drawing on his study of five centuries of imperial cycles, Dalio said a US failure to secure Hormuz risked becoming for America what the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis was for Britain, a single, public demonstration of overextension that permanently recalibrated how allies, adversaries, and creditors viewed the dominant power.
He also pointed out that the same pattern had played out for the Dutch Empire in the 18th century and the Spanish Empire in the 17th – a perceived lesser power challenges control of a critical trade route, the dominant power fails to hold it, and financial and geopolitical flows rapidly reorganise around the new reality.
Disclaimer: Due care and diligence have been taken in compiling and presenting news and market-related content. However, errors or omissions may arise despite such efforts.
The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Readers are advised to rely on their own assessment and judgment and consult appropriate financial advisers, if required, before taking any investment-related decisions.
Any views, opinions, or statements expressed, where applicable, are those of the respective analysts or experts and do not reflect the views of this website. The website has no association with such viewpoints and does not assume any responsibility for them.