Retail Sector Set to More Than Double in a Decade
India’s retail market is projected to more than double over the next ten years, expanding to Rs 210–215 lakh crore by 2035 from Rs 90–95 lakh crore in 2025, according to a report released on Monday. The growth outlook reflects India’s continued outperformance among major global economies and its trajectory towards becoming the world’s third largest economy.The report titled Winning Codes for Retail 2035: Capturing the Rs 200 Trillion Prize was jointly released by Boston Consulting Group and Retailers Association of India at the Retail Leadership Summit 2026.
AI and Structural Change to Define the Winners
As the retail sector enters its next phase, the report emphasizes that growth will favor companies combining clarity of strategic focus with disciplined execution and AI-led transformation. Retailers that adopt structural change across consumer engagement, operating models, and talent management are expected to capture disproportionate value in the journey toward a Rs 200 lakh crore market.The findings highlight the increasingly complex and context-driven nature of consumer decision-making. Technology, particularly artificial intelligence, is shaping every stage of the shopper journey, from product discovery to purchase.
The report urges retailers to reassess traditional assumptions, sharpen differentiated value propositions, and adopt AI as a catalyst to fundamentally redesign retail organizations.
Operating Cash Flows Strengthen Across Channels
According to the report, both offline and online retail segments are witnessing clear and sharp improvements in operating cash flows. It notes that future leaders will combine scale-driven AI adoption with excellent execution to sustain profitable growth.Explicit trade-offs and disciplined execution are described as essential to delivering differentiated customer value propositions while maintaining profitability.
Agentic Commerce Gains Momentum
The report points to the growing rise of agentic commerce, where GenAI systems increasingly influence research and purchasing decisions. It states that nearly 42 percent of urban consumers in the United States have already used GenAI in their buying journeys.Given India’s strong digital adoption curve, AI-led shopping journeys are expected to accelerate rapidly in urban markets, particularly among Gen Z consumers.
End-to-End AI Transformation Offers Higher Gains
Beyond front-end customer experiences, the report underscores the larger opportunity in end-to-end AI-led functional transformation. Retailers implementing AI across merchandising, supply chain, marketing, and service functions can unlock performance gains of 40–60 percent. This compares with the 10–15 percent gains typically achieved through isolated use-case deployments.The retail industry, as it enters 2026, faces three parallel realities: resilient demand, more discerning consumers, and continuous innovation by retailers. The report concludes that companies treating transformation as a disciplined, organization-wide effort rather than a standalone project will be best positioned to build trust and deliver consistently across formats, channels, and price points.
As India advances toward a Rs 210 lakh crore retail opportunity, AI integration, strategic clarity, and operational discipline are set to define the next decade of growth in the country’s retail ecosystem.
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