India Rebalances Crude Imports as Saudi Arabia Regains Top Spot Amid Softer Russian Flows

Middle Eastern Suppliers Gain Share as Russian Volumes Face Sanctions Pressure​

New Delhi, February 22: India’s crude oil import strategy is moving into a phase of calibrated rebalancing, with Middle Eastern suppliers led by Saudi Arabia regaining market share even as Russian volumes remain significant but increasingly shaped by geopolitical and compliance constraints.

According to shipping data and market assessments, India’s total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day between February 1 and 18. This marks an 8 percent decline from January’s average of 5.25 million barrels per day, following fresh United States sanctions on key Russian exporters and the European Union’s eighteenth sanctions package implemented last month.

Russian Crude Imports Ease Further​

Ship tracking data shows Russian shipments to India declining steadily. Imports fell from 1.28 million barrels per day in December 2025 to 1.22 million barrels per day in January, and further to around 1.09 million barrels per day in early February, reflecting a drop of roughly 10 percent month on month.

Russian crude imports into India are estimated at around 1.0 to 1.2 million barrels per day in February, with expectations of a gradual decrease to approximately 800,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day in March, according to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst for Refining and Modeling at Kpler.

India began ramping up Russian crude purchases after the Ukraine conflict in 2022. While current flows are softening, imports are seen stabilizing rather than collapsing. Market assessments indicate that Russia’s share in India’s crude basket is likely to settle at a lower range in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025, amid rising commercial and policy constraints.

Near term volatility is expected to remain driven by sanctions risks, shipping challenges, and logistical issues rather than pure price dynamics.

Saudi Arabia Emerges as Top Supplier in February​

As Russian volumes ease, the Middle East Gulf region is filling the gap. Shipments from Saudi Arabia are projected to reach between 1 million and 1.1 million barrels per day in February, the highest level since November 2019. Month to date arrivals have tracked even higher at around 1.4 million barrels per day before an expected moderation into early March.

Saudi Arabia is currently positioned as India’s largest crude supplier in February, followed by Russia and Iraq.

Following the Ukraine conflict, Russia had replaced Iraq as India’s biggest crude supplier, at one point accounting for as much as 40 percent of India’s total crude imports used for processing into fuels such as petrol and diesel. Subsequent waves of sanctions from the European Union and the United States have gradually tapered Russian inflows.

Refinery Dynamics and Supply Constraints​

A significant portion of Russian crude imports is directed to the Vadinar refinery in Gujarat, where Rosneft is the largest shareholder. The facility has been cut off from other suppliers after European Union sanctions linked to its Moscow connections, leaving it dependent solely on Russian crude to meet its feedstock requirements.

Market expectations suggest India can maintain volumes necessary to support refinery operations and domestic fuel supply, while avoiding any substantial expansion beyond baseline Russian imports. Russian flows are therefore expected to stabilize at a lower but persistent level, especially until a trade deal between the United States and India is finalized.

At the same time, India is diversifying supply through incremental purchases from Venezuela while Middle Eastern barrels regain share. However, Venezuelan imports are expected to remain marginal and supplementary.

Cost Implications of Reduced Russian Barrels​

From a market structure perspective, India is not positioned to fully replace Russian barrels without incurring additional costs. Russian grades have offered a combination of medium sour quality, stable availability, and discounted pricing, making them particularly suitable for complex refineries optimized for sour crude processing.

As India reduces Russian volumes, overall crude procurement costs are expected to rise by about USD 2 to 3 per barrel. Cheaper Venezuelan crude purchases could partially offset this impact, though Venezuelan supply remains structurally constrained by production limits, logistics, and compliance risks.

Multi Year High in Middle East Flows​

With Saudi shipments reaching their highest levels since November 2019, the immediate replacement for softer Russian flows has largely come from the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia. While some moderation in Saudi volumes is expected as February closes, total flows from Iraq and Saudi Arabia are projected to remain in the range of 1 to 1.1 million barrels per day each, marking a multi year high.

India’s crude import landscape is therefore shifting toward a balanced structure, where Russian oil continues at a reduced baseline while Middle Eastern suppliers regain prominence amid evolving geopolitical realities.