Gold Set for Massive Breakout to ₹1.85 Lakh: Macro Tailwinds, Global Shifts Drive Akshaya Tritiya Boom

Gold Set for Massive Breakout to ₹1.85 Lakh: Macro Tailwinds, Global Shifts Drive Akshaya Tritiya Boom​

As India approaches the auspicious festival of Akshaya Tritiya, which traditionally marks a prime time for gold purchases, analysis suggests that macro trends are providing robust support for the yellow metal. Analysts predict that global macroeconomic factors, combined with traditional investment sentiment, could push prices up to ₹1.85 lakh per 10 grams.

Axis Direct has noted that gold is strongly positioned in the current global environment. The brokerage maintains that the metal has inherent appeal, regardless of whether the global economy faces periods of stagflation or enjoys improvement amid falling interest rates.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds Support Gold Amid Global Uncertainty​

According to the report, the fundamental macroeconomic architecture provides a structural tailwind for gold. This resilience is key whether the global economy faces rate-cut relief or continues to battle stagflationary pressures.

A significant driver highlighted is the sustained inflationary risk posed by elevated crude oil prices. These prices, which are influenced by geopolitical tensions, typically boost demand for bullion as a reliable store of value.

Should global rates ease, the reduced opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold acts as a strong supportive force. This expectation of rate cuts, particularly from the US Federal Reserve, contributes positively to the metal’s pricing structure.

Domestic and International Price Targets for Yellow Metal​

For the domestic Indian market, analysts have projected a substantial upside, suggesting gold could rise to ₹1.7 lakh - ₹1.85 lakh per 10 grams. This represents a potential upside of up to 15 per cent from current levels.

If this projection materializes, it marks a significant milestone, representing a fifth consecutive year of double-digit returns for the commodity.

On the international front, analysts have set a COMEX gold target in the near term, projecting prices between $5,300–$5,500 per ounce.

The market has shown volatility recently. After reaching $5,598 per ounce in late January, COMEX prices corrected sharply due to geopolitical escalations, crude oil surges (from $60 to $115 per barrel), and inflation concerns. However, the metal has since rebuilt a "formidable base."

Institutional Demand and Historic Outperformance Fuel Gold's Appeal​

The underlying demand pillars remain intact following the stress test of the first quarter of 2026. These pillars include robust central bank accumulation, sustained ETF inflows, and ongoing macroeconomic hedging.

India itself reflects a major shift in investment behavior, with Indian gold ETF inflows rising sharply. The inflows jumped from ₹1,500 crore in 2022 to an estimated ₹25,000–₹30,000 crore in 2025, indicating a clear shift toward financial gold instruments over physical jewelry.

Furthermore, global institutional activity has created a historic narrative. The total value of gold held by central banks has now surpassed their combined holdings of US Treasuries, with both estimated at around $4 trillion.

While central bank purchases are expected to moderate to approximately 850 tonnes in 2026, the commodity’s long-term investment case remains undeniable. Historically, gold has delivered superior returns, with an investment of ₹100 in 2016 proving to be worth around ₹527 today, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50's corresponding return of about ₹307.

Analysts conclude that gold remains a fundamental portfolio necessity, making its investment case strong irrespective of the global economic trajectory for the coming Akshaya Tritiya.

Source:​