Gold Rate Today: Prices Fall 7% Amid US-Iran War; Should Investors Consider Buying?

Gold Rate Today: Prices Fall 7% Amid US-Iran War; Should Investors Consider Buying?​

Gold Prices Under Pressure Despite Geopolitical Tensions​

Gold prices remain volatile as the ongoing US-Iran war continues to influence global markets. Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold has declined nearly 7% since February 28, even as geopolitical tensions persist. This shift reflects a growing investor preference for the US dollar over bullion during the current crisis.

For the week, gold managed a modest gain of around 2.2%. However, the upside remained limited as crude oil prices surged more than 10%, intensifying inflation concerns and weakening gold’s traditional appeal, according to Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet.

COMEX gold settled at $4,679.70 per ounce, while MCX gold closed at ₹1,49,650 per 10 grams.

Why Are Gold Prices Falling?​

Sugandha Sachdeva explained that geopolitical developments remain uncertain. Early indications from Donald Trump and Iran pointed toward a possible ceasefire, but the tone has since shifted, with stronger rhetoric and fresh threats of extended military action.

At the same time, Iran’s IRGC Navy continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices elevated, fuelling concerns around imported inflation and strengthening expectations of tighter monetary policy in the US.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the US economy showed resilience in March. Non-farm payrolls rose by 178K against estimates of 65K, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.3% compared to the 4.4% forecast. Wage growth also remained steady.

These factors reinforce expectations that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance, supporting the dollar and limiting gains in gold. Meanwhile, continued ETF outflows during March signal weakening investor demand for the yellow metal, Sachdeva noted.

Gold Prices Likely to Remain Volatile​

Sugandha Sachdeva stated that as long as oil prices remain elevated and expectations of rate cuts are delayed, gold is likely to witness sharp, headline-driven volatility rather than a sustained rally.

“In essence, gold remains caught between geopolitical uncertainty and macro headwinds, with price action increasingly dictated by crude oil trends and dollar strength,” she added.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with commodities gradually transitioning from consolidation to a recovery phase. However, the absence of strong follow-through buying reflects a wait-and-watch approach among investors.

“Investors are pricing in uncertainty, but not committing to a clear trend. Near-term direction will remain event-driven, influenced by currency movement, central bank signals, and evolving geopolitical developments,” Ponmudi added.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch​

COMEX Gold Levels​

Ponmudi R stated that COMEX gold is holding above key short-term moving averages but continues to face resistance in the $4,700 to $4,750 range. Price action indicates underlying weakness, with geopolitical support failing to generate strong upside momentum.

“A decisive breakout above $4,800 can push prices toward $4,850, with further upside extending to $4,900, where strong supply is expected,” he said.

On the downside, a sustained break below $4,600 may accelerate selling toward $4,550 to $4,500, with extended weakness potentially dragging prices toward $4,400.

MCX Gold Levels​

Sugandha Sachdeva highlighted that MCX gold continues to consolidate, facing strong resistance at ₹1,57,600 to ₹1,58,800 per 10 grams, and $4,800 to $4,880 per ounce in international markets.

“Unless these levels are decisively breached, the upside remains constrained,” she said.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $4,400 and ₹1,44,000 to ₹1,45,000 per 10 grams. A breach below these levels could trigger further corrective pressure, Sachdeva added.