Shares of Fractal Analytics are set to make their stock market debut on Monday, February 16, with grey market trends pointing to a muted start. The company, among the first pure-play Indian artificial intelligence firms to tap public markets, enters the bourses at a time when global AI sentiment remains volatile.
Grey Market Signals Indicate Limited Upside
The grey market premium for Fractal Analytics was quoted at ₹11, suggesting a likely discount of around 1.22 percent to the issue price. While grey market trends remain unofficial and speculative, they indicate that the stock may not see an aggressive listing surge.Analysts expect a measured opening rather than a sharp rally on debut.
Shivani Nyati of Swastika Investmart said the stock may witness a modest listing pop based on current unofficial trends. She advised investors to adopt a balanced strategy post listing.
Short-term investors looking for listing gains may consider partial profit booking if the stock opens at a premium, particularly given elevated valuations and volatile AI sector sentiment. Long-term investors, however, could stay invested, considering the company’s positioning in the expanding global AI and analytics space.
Mahesh M Ojha of Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities noted that in the absence of directly comparable listed peers with a similar business model, the pricing appears reasonable relative to the sector’s growth potential. He added that while the business operates in a high-growth segment, it also carries elevated risk, making it more suitable for investors with a higher risk appetite. Fresh investors may prefer to wait for price discovery after listing.
IPO Subscription and Valuation Details
The ₹2,834 crore IPO was subscribed 2.66 times at close, receiving bids for 4.94 crore shares against 1.85 crore shares on offer.The company had fixed a price band of ₹857 to ₹900 per share, seeking a valuation of up to ₹14,450 crore at the upper end of the band.
Issue Structure and Use of Proceeds
The public issue comprises a fresh issue of ₹1,023.5 crore and an offer for sale of ₹1,810.4 crore.Selling shareholders in the offer for sale include Quinag Bidco Ltd, TPG Fett Holdings Pte. Ltd, Satya Kumari Remala Rao, Venkateswara Remala and GLM Family Trust.
Promoter holding is expected to decline from 18.18 percent before the issue to 16.98 percent after listing.
A portion of the proceeds will be deployed in a subsidiary to repay certain borrowings. The company also plans to invest in laptops, new office spaces, research and development, sales and marketing initiatives, and potential inorganic acquisitions, although specific targets have not been disclosed.
Business Profile and Sector Context
Backed by global investors such as TPG, Apax Partners and Gaja Capital, Fractal Analytics operates as a pure-play data and AI company. Its expertise spans consumer packaged goods and retail, technology, media and telecom, healthcare and life sciences, and BFSI.Founded in 2000, the company serves several global technology and consumer giants, including Microsoft and Alphabet.
Earlier, Fractal reduced its issue size by over 40 percent after being advised to leave headroom for investors, as artificial intelligence remains a relatively new investment theme, CEO Srikanth Velamakanni said recently.
The listing comes amid broader concerns over AI-led disruption, which have triggered volatility in global software stocks.
Vipul Bhowar, senior director at Waterfield Advisors, said the timing could be challenging as investors assess the impact of advanced AI tools such as Anthropic on traditional data analytics and software businesses.
As Fractal Analytics begins trading, the market will closely watch whether investor confidence in India’s AI story translates into sustained post-listing performance.
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