Energy Disruption: Rising Prices and Shifting Trade Flows

Gulf Energy Strikes Disrupt Global Supply, Boost Upstream Firms While Downstream Faces Pressure​

Energy Price Surge Shifts Sector Dynamics​

New Delhi, March 20 – Recent strikes at Gulf energy facilities have triggered sharp disruptions in global oil and gas flows, driving prices higher and reshaping sectoral gains and losses, according to a report released on Friday.

Systematix Institutional Equities highlighted that upstream oil producers and oilfield service companies are emerging as the biggest beneficiaries of the current situation. In contrast, downstream companies and end-user industries are likely to face pressure due to elevated input costs and supply constraints.

Supply Disruptions Raise Long-Term Concerns​

The report warned that rising energy prices and disrupted supply volumes could significantly impact energy-deficient countries. It added that restoring normal supply levels may take considerable time, potentially creating prolonged challenges for the sector.

Reflecting this cautious outlook, the firm has removed Petronet LNG (PLNG) from its top picks, citing concerns that regasified liquefied natural gas companies could face sustained difficulties due to ongoing disruptions.

Sharp Decline in Crude and LNG Volumes​

Data cited in the report showed a notable decline in India’s crude imports, which fell to 1.9 million barrels in the week ended March 6, compared with around 25 million barrels per week in February 2026.

Global LNG export volumes also weakened, dropping to 8.6 million metric tonnes (mmt) for the week ending March 7 and further to 7.8 mmt in the following week, down from approximately 9.6 million tonnes per week in February. The decline was largely attributed to a sharp fall in Qatar’s shipments, which dropped from 1.7 million tonnes to 0.06 million tonnes.

Global Export Trends Show Mixed Movement​

Weekly global crude export volumes fell significantly to 228 million barrels for the week ended March 7 and further to 184 million barrels in the week ended March 14, compared to about 268 million barrels per week in February 2026.

Saudi Arabia’s shipments declined sharply to 26 million barrels and 12 million barrels in the first and second weeks of March, respectively, from averages of 42 million and 33 million barrels per week in February.

Exports from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also registered steep declines. In contrast, shipments from the United States increased to 25 million and 32 million barrels during the same period. Other countries did not see any notable changes in export levels.

LNG Demand Weakens as Prices Double​

LNG imports by major consuming nations including Japan, South Korea, China, and India declined sharply during the period. This contraction in demand, coupled with supply disruptions, led to a steep rise in prices.

According to the report, LNG prices have nearly doubled in recent weeks, rising from $10 per mmbtu to close to $20 per mmbtu, reflecting the tightening global energy market.