Conflict Slowdown: Gems Exports Dip 35% But India Poised to Lead Global Diamond Trade

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India's gems and jewellery exports faced a significant hurdle in March, recording a sharp 35.23 per cent decline to USD 27,717.40 million (Rs 2,44,827.26 crore). According to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), the primary drag on exports was attributed to the volatile geopolitical situation in West Asia.

The industry body reported that total gems and jewellery exports in March 2025 amounted to USD 28,669.53 million (Rs 2,42,559.39 crores). GJEPC chairman Kirit Bhansali explained that the Middle East conflict severely disrupted logistics channels. The resultant high-risk environment caused insurance premiums to skyrocket, impeding even diamond export parcels.

Initial Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Exports​

The challenging market conditions saw the overall exports of gems and jewellery dip marginally by 3.32 per cent in the fiscal year 2025-26. The dip recorded in March was directly linked to logistics disruptions caused by the West Asia conflict, which hampered smooth international trade operations.

While the overall decline was noted, Bhansali confirmed that the negative impact of tariffs imposed by the US market was partially offset. This resilience was demonstrated by stronger demand emerging from key global markets.

Resilience Shown by Select Global Markets​

The export landscape showed noteworthy geographical stability despite global economic headwinds. Strong consumer demand was maintained from markets including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU).

These markets helped cushion the blow from softer demand observed in the US following tariff impositions. Additionally, economic pressures in China were factored into the overall export figures, necessitating continued market diversification efforts by the industry.

Path to Recovery: India's Potential as a Diamond Trading Hub​

Despite the short-term setbacks, industry leaders view the conflict as a potential long-term opportunity. Bhansali suggested that with necessary government support, the turmoil could transform India into a major rough diamond trading hub.

Currently, UAE companies are expressing keen interest in establishing rough diamond trading infrastructure in India. The chairman noted that since India already possesses a strong reputation as a polishing hub, policy backing could cement its position as a complete trading gateway.

The council remains optimistic, anticipating that once geopolitical tensions settle down over the next two to three months, gems and jewellery exports are expected to show a significant increase. Meanwhile, the industry will continue its strategic exploration of new international export markets.

Product Analysis: Silver and Gold Lead the Way​

Specific analysis of metal segments reveals a mixed performance picture. The overall exports of cut and polished diamonds (CPD) saw a decline of 27.48 per cent in March compared to the previous year. For the full fiscal year 2026, CPD exports are projected to dip by 8.52 per cent.

In contrast, the performance of precious metals provided much-needed strength to the export basket. Total gold jewellery exports for 2025-26 were stable, remaining flat at USD 11,364.32 million (Rs 1,00,277.64 crore) compared to the prior year.

Most notable was the performance of silver jewellery exports. These exports registered a strong year-on-year growth of 52.21 per cent in FY26. The export value reached USD 1,467.47 million (Rs 13,013.54 crores), significantly beating the previous year's figure of USD 964.10 million (Rs 8,135.78 crores).
 

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Editorial Note

This news article was written and created by Himanshu, and published on IST.
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