China's Surge Rewrites Soy Oil Map: India's Import Dependence Climbs as Global Supply Risks Rise

China's Surge Rewrites Soy Oil Map: India's Import Dependence Climbs as Global Supply Risks Rise​

India’s dependence on crude soybean oil imports is escalating, marked by the emergence of China as a significant new supplier. This shift adds to New Delhi’s reliance on a concentrated group of exporting nations, raising concerns about supply chain vulnerability and geopolitical shocks. Data reveals that Argentina, Brazil, and China together accounted for 93.3 percent of India's crude soybean oil imports between November 2025 and March 2026.

The Consolidation of Soybean Oil Supply​

The market dynamics are undergoing a significant transformation as smaller exporters cede ground to major players. China has rapidly ascended, contributing 8.1 percent of imports in the current period, a dramatic shift from virtually zero share in the preceding four years. This rise involves replacing countries such as Russia, Thailand, and the United States.

Argentina maintains its position as India’s dominant supplier, accounting for 63.4 percent of crude soybean oil imports during the 2025–26 period. Brazil remains the second-largest contributor, though its share decreased to 21.8 percent from 23.8 percent in the previous fiscal year.

Data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India indicates that China supplied 209,890 tonnes during November 2025–May 2026, establishing it as the third-largest supplier. During this same period, Argentina accounted for 1.64 million tonnes, while Brazil exported 566,199 tonnes to India.

Mounting Cost Pressures and Economic Vulnerability​

The rising global commodity prices are intensifying import costs significantly. Crude soybean oil prices remain 22 percent higher compared to May 2025 figures. Simultaneously, the rupee has depreciated by more than 12 percent, translating directly into increased landed costs for domestic refiners and putting continuous upward pressure on edible oil prices across the nation.

A concentrated import base, while potentially optimizing procurement efficiency and scale, undeniably increases vulnerability. This exposure extends beyond crude soybean oil; total edible oil imports saw a rise of 13 percent year-on-year, reaching 9.22 million tonnes during November 2025–May 2026.

Edible Oil Imports and Domestic Refining Shifts​

In the 2025-26 fiscal year, vegetable oils and edible oil constituted a substantial segment of India's import basket. These categories climbed to a combined $240.7 billion, making up 31.1 percent of the country’s total merchandise imports. Edible oil itself was worth nearly $20 billion in this period, accounting for 2.5 percent of the nation’s $776 billion total imports.

Despite the high import volume, there has been a notable positive trend toward domestic processing capabilities. India has sharply reduced its dependence on refined edible oil imports. Refined oils accounted for just 3 percent of total edible oil imports between November and March 2026, a considerable drop from 16 percent recorded a year earlier.

The shift is also reflected in household spending habits. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) data shows that the share of expenditure dedicated to edible oil has increased among rural households. Where it was 7.1 percent in 2011-12, it stood at 7.7 percent in 2022-23.