Domestic macroeconomic data releases, the monthly futures and options expiry, and global developments triggered by fresh tariff measures from US President Donald Trump are expected to keep Indian equity markets volatile in the coming week, according to analysts.
Investors will also track foreign institutional investor activity, evolving developments between the US and Iran, crude oil price movements, and global monetary policy signals as key drivers of sentiment.
F&O Expiry and Key Domestic Data in Focus
Market participants are bracing for heightened volatility, particularly with the monthly F&O expiry scheduled for February 24.Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said that several important domestic data points are lined up for release. These include:
- India’s GDP figures
- Government budget value
- Foreign exchange reserves
- Infrastructure output on a year-on-year basis
Trump’s Tariff Hike After Supreme Court Verdict Raises Global Concerns
Global markets are assessing the implications of a fresh executive order issued by Trump following a ruling by the US Supreme Court on tariffs.On Friday, Trump imposed a 10 per cent tariff on multiple countries, including India, for 150 days. A day later, he raised the tariff to 15 per cent, intensifying concerns of renewed trade tensions and potential global spillovers.
In a setback to Trump’s second-term economic agenda, the US Supreme Court ruled that the sweeping tariffs imposed on nations worldwide were illegal. The court said the president had exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 when introducing the levies.
Analysts believe the developments could influence global trade dynamics, tariff structures, and overall risk sentiment.
Global Triggers: US-Iran Developments and Crude Oil Prices
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said that apart from domestic data, markets will closely monitor:- Developments between the US and Iran
- Movement in crude oil prices
- Global monetary signals
Weekly Market Performance: Sensex and Nifty Edge Higher
On a weekly basis, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 187.95 points, or 0.22 per cent, while the Nifty gained 100.15 points, or 0.39 per cent.Market sentiment during the week remained volatile, oscillating between caution and optimism. Strong buying interest in banking, financials, power, and select FMCG stocks helped offset persistent global uncertainties.
However, IT stocks remained subdued, weighed down by concerns over AI-led disruption and margin pressures.
Despite these headwinds, resilience in large-cap stocks and selective sectoral flows supported the broader market, allowing indices to close the week on a positive note.
Range-Bound Movement Likely in Near Term
Analysts expect the domestic market to remain range-bound in the near term. Liquidity flows and global risk sentiment are likely to act as primary triggers as investors navigate a complex mix of domestic data releases and global trade developments.With F&O expiry and GDP data on the horizon, traders are preparing for another week of heightened volatility across Indian equity markets.
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The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Readers are advised to rely on their own assessment and judgment and consult appropriate financial advisers, if required, before taking any investment-related decisions.
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