OPEC+ Boosts Production as Oil Prices React to Regional Crisis

Oil Prices Surge to Seven Month High as US and Israel Strikes on Iran Trigger Middle East Crisis​

Global oil prices have jumped sharply after coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran escalated tensions across the Middle East over the weekend. The situation intensified further after Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks targeting several Gulf nations, including the tourism hubs of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, along with Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman.

The developments have sparked immediate concerns over energy supply stability, pushing benchmark crude prices to multi month highs.

Brent Crude Climbs Above $80 for First Time Since June​

Brent Crude, which had already closed Friday above $72 per barrel at a seven month high and recorded gains of nearly 19 percent in the first two months of 2026, surged to as much as $80 per barrel following the escalation.

The benchmark has now crossed the $80 mark for the first time since June last year, when initial Israeli attacks on Iran lasted for 12 days.

US West Texas Intermediate also rose sharply, gaining 8 percent to move above the $70 per barrel mark.

The sudden spike reflects heightened geopolitical risk and fears of potential supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy producing regions.

Iran’s Role in OPEC+ Output and Global Oil Supply​

Despite losing some regional influence, Iran remains a significant player in global oil markets. It is the fourth largest producer within the OPEC+ group, accounting for 12 percent of the group’s total output, which is led by Saudi Arabia.

Iran has the capacity to produce 3.3 million barrels per day, representing around 3 percent of total global oil output. The country’s largest refinery can process up to 500,000 barrels per day.

Given this scale, any disruption involving Iran carries meaningful implications for global supply dynamics.

Strait of Hormuz Concerns Add to Market Volatility​

Market anxiety has also centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which about 20 percent of global oil supply and a similar share of LNG shipments pass.

There have been conflicting reports regarding a potential closure of the Strait. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragachi told Al Jazeera that there is no intention to shut the passage.

The Strait is particularly vital for Iran itself, as approximately 90 percent of its oil exports pass through this route en route to China.

Even speculation about disruptions in this corridor has been enough to amplify price volatility in global crude markets.

Barclays Warns of $100 Oil in Case of Prolonged Disruption​

Analysts at Barclays have indicated that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices toward $100 per barrel in the near term.

At the same time, they noted that such elevated price levels may not be sustained if tensions de escalate quickly and supply flows remain uninterrupted.

The market’s next direction will likely depend on whether the crisis stabilizes or expands further across the region.

OPEC+ Accelerates Output Increase from April​

Amid the geopolitical turmoil, OPEC+ held its monthly video conference on Sunday and agreed to resume output increases at a slightly faster pace starting in April.

Key members Saudi Arabia and Russia, which had paused a series of production increases during the first quarter, will jointly add 260,000 barrels per day from April onward.

This increase is 1.5 times higher than the 137,000 barrels per day hike implemented by the group last December.

The move signals an attempt by the alliance to manage supply levels as markets react to escalating geopolitical risks.

Oil Market Outlook Amid Rising Middle East Tensions​

With Brent Crude above $80 and West Texas Intermediate crossing $70, global oil markets are now firmly focused on the trajectory of the Middle East conflict and the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

Any prolonged disruption could intensify upward pressure on prices, while signs of de escalation may ease volatility. For now, geopolitical risk remains the dominant driver of crude oil price movements.