Oil-Sensitive, Tourism, Gold Finance and Metal Stocks in Focus After US Attack on Iran

Indian equity markets are set for a volatile start on Monday as geopolitical tensions escalate following the US attack on Iran, the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait remains a critical global oil supply route, and any disruption is expected to trigger a sharp spike in crude oil prices.

Investors are closely monitoring oil-sensitive stocks, tourism-linked counters, gold financiers, metal companies, and firms with exposure to the Middle East.

Oil-Sensitive Stocks to React to Crude Price Surge​

Crude oil prices are likely to surge in early trade, making upstream oil exploration companies key beneficiaries.

An increase of one dollar in crude prices boosts the annual revenue of upstream players like ONGC and Oil India by approximately ₹300 crore to ₹400 crore.

However, the same rise in crude prices negatively impacts downstream refiners. Companies such as HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil could see their EBITDA affected by ₹200 crore to ₹300 crore for every one dollar increase in oil prices.

Higher crude prices also weigh on sectors dependent on oil derivatives, including paints, tyre manufacturers, and other crude-linked product companies, as rising input costs may compress margins.

Tourism and Aviation Stocks Under Pressure​

Tourism-linked stocks are expected to remain under pressure after Iranian drone activity impacted Dubai and other Middle Eastern countries overnight, leading to flight cancellations and airspace closures.

Aviation players such as IndiGo and SpiceJet may face operational disruptions.

Hotel major Indian Hotels and travel booking platforms like Yatra and Ixigo are also likely to remain in focus.

Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest airports and a key global tourism hub, recorded 11.9 million passengers, with India emerging as the largest source market. In February, shares of Ixigo and Yatra Online had declined by up to 20 percent.

Gold Financiers and Jewellery Stocks to Gain Attention​

Heightened geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is expected to trigger a flight to safety when markets open. Gold and silver prices, already near record levels, could see panic buying if broader markets correct sharply.

Rising gold prices may bring renewed attention to gold financiers such as Manappuram and Muthoot Finance. While Manappuram shares were flat in February, Muthoot Finance declined by around 12 percent during the month.

Jewellery companies including Titan, Senco, and Kalyan Jewellers will also remain in focus. Kalyan Jewellers may see sharper investor attention due to its significant presence in the Middle East.

Metal Stocks and Dollar Impact​

If investors shift toward safe haven assets, the US dollar could strengthen. A stronger dollar is typically negative for metals.

The Nifty Metal Index was the third best performing sectoral index in February, delivering gains of 8 percent. Stocks such as Lloyds Metal, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, Welspun Corp, SAIL, Adani Enterprises, and Vedanta gained between 10 percent and 15 percent last month.

Tata Motors CV and Mahindra & Mahindra Face Indonesia Order Halt​

According to a Bloomberg report, Indonesia is halting an order for 105,000 trucks from Tata Motors CV and Mahindra & Mahindra after pushback from policymakers.

The order involved 4x4 and six wheeler trucks intended for establishing more than 80,000 community cooperatives across the country.

In February, Mahindra & Mahindra had announced its largest ever export order, comprising 35,000 Scorpio pickups. Tata Motors had also disclosed orders for 35,000 Yodha pickups and 35,000 Ultra T.7 trucks to Indonesia, marking its largest such order.

Stocks with Exposure to the Middle East in Focus​

Following drone strikes across multiple locations in the region, companies with significant exposure to the Middle East are expected to remain on investors’ radar.

Shares of Larsen & Toubro, Kalyan Jewellers, Welspun Corp, and KEC International, which has secured orders in the region, are likely to be actively tracked.

Other corporate developments include:

Brigade Enterprises launching a new project with a gross development value of ₹1,700 crore.

GAIL approving an investment of nearly ₹1,800 crore to set up a greenfield wind power project in Maharashtra.

Aurobindo Pharma stating that its subsidiary Eugia’s formulations unit in Telangana was inspected by the USFDA, with four observations issued.

Vedanta emerging as the preferred bidder for the Karnapodikonda bauxite block in Odisha.

As geopolitical risks intensify, sector-specific movements are expected to dominate market action, with crude oil prices, safe haven flows, and Middle East exposure shaping Monday’s trade.