Maruti Suzuki: Analysts See Overblown Underperformance Concerns

Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services said concerns about the recent underperformance of Maruti Suzuki India shares are exaggerated and maintained a positive outlook on the country’s largest passenger car manufacturer.

The brokerage reiterated its “buy” rating on the stock and set a price target of ₹17,406, implying a potential upside of about 29% from Wednesday’s closing price.

Market share recovery expected​

According to Motilal Oswal, Maruti Suzuki’s underperformance compared with the broader auto index is largely due to weak wholesale sales and a disappointing December-quarter result.

However, the brokerage believes these concerns are overstated because retail demand for Maruti’s vehicles remains strong, particularly in the car and SUV segments. Demand for cars has also improved following the GST rate cut introduced in September last year, with Maruti Suzuki seen as a key beneficiary.

Wholesale volumes are currently constrained by limited production capacity, but this is expected to ease from April 2026, when additional manufacturing capacity becomes operational.

Once the new capacity is added, Motilal Oswal expects Maruti Suzuki to grow faster than the overall industry, supported by a strong pipeline of upcoming launches. This includes recently introduced models such as the Suzuki Victoris and Suzuki e‑Vitara, an upgraded Maruti Suzuki Brezza expected soon, and another model scheduled for release in the financial year 2027.

The brokerage believes this product pipeline, combined with improving demand for passenger cars, could help the company regain market share.

Motilal Oswal projects earnings growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% between FY25 and FY28.

Exports to drive long-term growth​

Exports are expected to be another major growth driver. Parent company Suzuki Motor Corporation is shifting more of its export-oriented production to India and has designated the country as a global manufacturing hub for the e-Vitara and Victoris models.

The alliance between Toyota Motor Corporation and Suzuki also provides long-term opportunities, as it gives Maruti Suzuki access to Toyota’s international markets.

Maruti Suzuki surpassed its FY26 export target of 400,000 vehicles in February 2026, driven by strong demand across several overseas markets. The company continues to aim for annual exports of 750,000 to 800,000 vehicles by FY31.

Motilal Oswal expects export volumes to grow at a 25% CAGR between FY25 and FY28.

Analyst views and stock performance​

Currently, 48 analysts track Maruti Suzuki. Among them, 41 recommend “buy,” five suggest “hold,” and two have “sell” ratings on the stock.

Shares of Maruti Suzuki closed 2.7% lower at ₹13,500 in the previous session. The stock has fallen 11.9% over the past month and is down 19.2% so far this year.