Market Rebound: Sensex and Nifty Rise on Ceasefire Hopes and Banking Gains

Sensex, Nifty Rebound Sharply on Ceasefire Hopes and Cooling Crude Prices​

Mumbai, April 6: Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty staged a strong recovery on Monday, reversing early losses as easing crude oil prices and reports of potential ceasefire efforts in West Asia lifted investor sentiment.

The rally was supported by strong buying in banking and IT stocks, along with gains in the rupee, which helped stabilize market mood during a volatile trading session.

Markets Recover After Intraday Volatility​

The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 787.30 points or 1.07% to close at 74,106.85. During the session, the index surged as much as 887.91 points or 1.21% to touch 74,207.46.

The NSE Nifty 50 also advanced 255.15 points or 1.12% to settle at 22,968.25.

Market breadth remained positive, with 3,207 stocks advancing, 1,147 declining, and 190 remaining unchanged on the BSE.

Banking and IT Stocks Lead the Rally​

Sectoral performance was largely positive, led by rate-sensitive and consumption-driven segments. BSE PSU Bank index rose 2.37%, while Consumer Durables gained 2.30%. Private Banks advanced 2.15%, Financial Services 2.12%, Top 10 Banks 2.07%, Bankex 2.03%, and utilities 1.94%.

Consumer durables emerged as the top-performing sector, supported by sustained demand trends. IT stocks also outperformed, aided by rupee movement and defensive buying amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Energy and oil and gas stocks lagged the broader market.

Key Gainers and Losers​

Among Sensex constituents, Trent led the gains with a sharp rise of 7.89%. Other major gainers included Axis Bank, Titan, Larsen and Toubro, UltraTech Cement, and Bajaj Finance.

On the downside, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma ended as laggards.

Ceasefire Hopes and Crude Oil Cooling Boost Sentiment​

According to Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, the recovery was driven by reports of a potential ceasefire framework in the Middle East, which helped stabilize crude prices and improved global risk sentiment.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, noted that value buying across sectors also supported the rally, while softer crude prices and encouraging provisional banking data boosted interest in rate-sensitive stocks.

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said markets faced profit booking in the first half but witnessed strong buying in the latter half, leading to a sharp upward move.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, added that improving global cues, appreciation in the rupee, and a marginal decline in India VIX further restored investor confidence.

Enrich Money CEO Ponmudi R Flags Relief Rally, Persistent Risks​

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said Indian equity markets traded with cautious optimism, ending positively as markets began pricing in a potential near-term de-escalation in the Middle East conflict along with easing concerns around energy supply disruptions.

He noted that the recovery lacked strong conviction and was largely a relief bounce supported by short covering, selective value buying, and stable global cues. Markets remained range-bound in the first half before witnessing gradual buying interest in the latter half, helping indices close in positive territory.

According to him, the rebound was driven by a modest pullback in crude oil prices, with Brent slipping below the 105 dollar mark amid reports of a proposed temporary ceasefire. Domestic institutional investors continued to provide stability at lower levels by absorbing selling pressure.

He highlighted that the rally was broad-based, with financial and banking stocks leading gains in the 1.6% to 2.6% range, supported by valuations and domestic flows. Oil and gas stocks declined nearly 1.4%, while pharma stocks faced selling pressure amid concerns over potential US tariff actions.

Ponmudi R added that energy markets provided partial relief as crude prices cooled from recent highs, although geopolitical risks remain elevated. He pointed out that crude prices on MCX declined nearly 1.8% but continued to hold above the 10000 level, which remains a key macro pressure point.

He concluded that the current upmove was primarily a relief rally driven by easing crude prices and absence of fresh negative triggers rather than a fundamental shift. He cautioned that volatility remains elevated, with India VIX above 24, and markets are likely to stay reactive and headline-driven until there is clear de-escalation in global tensions.

Technical View: Key Levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty​

From a technical perspective, Ponmudi R said Nifty 50 witnessed a steady intraday recovery after remaining range-bound in the first half. The index is approaching immediate resistance near 23,000, and a sustained move above this level could push it towards 23,200.

On the downside, support is placed in the 22,800 to 22,750 zone, followed by a stronger base near 22,550. He cautioned that failure to hold above 23,000 may trigger fresh selling pressure, keeping the broader trend cautious.

For Bank Nifty, he noted a steady upmove with strengthening momentum in the latter half of the session. Immediate resistance is seen in the 52,800 to 53,000 range, with potential upside towards 53,300 to 53,600 if sustained.

Support for Bank Nifty is placed at 52,200 to 52,000, followed by a stronger zone at 51,800 to 51,600. He said the near-term outlook remains cautiously positive with a mild upward bias, but a sustained move above 53,600 is required to confirm a stronger recovery.

Global and Currency Cues Remain Supportive​

Brent crude declined 0.71% to USD 108.3 per barrel, offering relief to markets concerned about energy supply disruptions.

The Indian rupee strengthened by 14 paise to close at 93.04 against the US dollar.

In Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended higher, while markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai remained closed due to a holiday.

Institutional Activity and Previous Session​

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth Rs 9,931.13 crore on Thursday, while Domestic Institutional Investors purchased shares worth Rs 7,208.41 crore.

In the previous session on Thursday, the Sensex had ended 185.23 points higher at 73,319.55, while the Nifty closed 33.70 points up at 22,713.10.

Outlook Remains Cautious​

Despite the rebound, analysts indicated that overall market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent inflationary pressures and concerns over potential disruptions to global trade.