India GDP Growth Seen Near 8.1% in Q3 FY26 Under Revised Base Year 2022-23
New Delhi, February 24: India’s economy is projected to expand by close to 8.1 per cent in the September to December quarter of FY26, according to a report released on Tuesday under the revised GDP series with 2022-23 as the new base year.The growth estimate comes amid methodological changes and ahead of the release of the second advance estimates by the National Statistics Office on February 27.
Q3 FY26 Growth Outlook Signals Resilience
The country recorded an 8 per cent growth rate in the first half of the ongoing financial year ending March 2026. Earlier, the first advance estimate by the National Statistics Office had pegged real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for FY26, higher than the 6.5 per cent growth registered in the previous financial year.In its latest assessment, the Economic Research Department of the State Bank of India indicated that high-frequency indicators point to resilient economic activity during the third quarter of FY26.
“High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in 3QFY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent increase since the last festive season,” the report said.
Based on these trends, the report expects real GDP growth to be close to 8.1 per cent in Q3 FY26.
However, it cautioned that due to significant methodological changes associated with the new base year, predicting the direction of revisions remains difficult.
Revised Base Year to Impact Earlier Quarterly Data
With the second advance estimates for FY26 set to be released on February 27, earlier quarterly data for the first and second quarters are expected to undergo revisions in line with the updated base year of 2022-23.The recalibration of GDP calculations under the new base year may alter previously reported growth figures, reflecting updated methodologies and additional data inputs.
Deposit Growth Trails Credit Expansion
The report also highlighted trends in the banking system, noting that deposit growth among Scheduled Commercial Banks remains muted relative to credit expansion.As per the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India, aggregate deposits grew by 12.5 per cent, while credit expanded at a faster pace of 14.6 per cent.
The widening gap between deposit and credit growth has pushed up the credit-deposit ratio. However, the report noted that such divergences are not unprecedented in the banking system.
India Economic Growth FY26: Key Takeaways
• Real GDP growth projected at close to 8.1 per cent in Q3 FY26• FY26 growth estimated at 7.4 per cent as per first advance estimates
• Growth in H1 FY26 recorded at 8 per cent
• Revised base year 2022-23 may alter earlier quarterly data
• Bank deposits grew 12.5 per cent versus 14.6 per cent credit growth
With the revised GDP series and updated data inputs, the upcoming second advance estimates are expected to provide greater clarity on the trajectory of India’s economic growth in FY26.
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