Indian Stock Market Outlook: Sensex, Nifty Rebound as GDP Data, US Tariffs and F&O Expiry Come into Focus

Indian Stock Market Outlook: Sensex, Nifty Rebound as GDP Data, US Tariffs and F&O Expiry Come into Focus​

Mumbai, February 22: Investors are preparing for a data-heavy and event-driven week as global tariff developments in the United States, India’s upcoming GDP figures, and the monthly derivatives expiry are expected to steer market direction.

The Indian equity market staged a strong recovery on Friday after witnessing a sharp fall of over 1 percent in the previous session, indicating resilience amid global uncertainties.

Sensex and Nifty Close Higher After Sharp Rebound​

The 30 share BSE Sensex rose 317 points, or 0.38 percent, to settle at 82,814.71.

The broader NIFTY 50 advanced 117 points, or 0.46 percent, closing at 25,571.25.

Despite the recovery in headline indices, the broader market delivered a mixed performance. The BSE 150 MidCap Index gained 0.44 percent, while the BSE 250 SmallCap Index declined 0.19 percent, reflecting selective participation across segments.

Technical Levels to Watch on Nifty​

From a technical standpoint, analysts highlighted key resistance and support levels for the Nifty in the near term.

Immediate resistance is seen at 25,800, followed by 26,000 and 26,200. On the downside, support levels are placed at 25,300 and 25,100.

A decisive break below 25,000 could intensify downside momentum and trigger further corrective pressure, indicating that traders are likely to remain cautious around these crucial thresholds.

US Tariff Developments May Influence Global Sentiment​

Global trade dynamics remain a central theme for investors. Market participants are closely evaluating tariff related decisions in the United States, particularly any legal interpretation or policy adjustment that could alter global trade flows.

Any significant shift in this area could have ripple effects across global markets and, consequently, influence investor sentiment in India.

India GDP Data, Budget Numbers and Forex Reserves in Focus​

On the domestic front, attention is turning to key macroeconomic indicators.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is scheduled to release the next quarterly GDP estimates under the new series on February 27. The data is expected to provide fresh insights into the pace of economic growth.

Apart from GDP figures, investors will track government budget numbers, foreign exchange reserves, and year on year infrastructure output data for further clarity on economic health.

February F&O Expiry May Heighten Volatility​

Market volatility is also expected to rise as traders reposition ahead of the February derivatives expiry, scheduled for February 24.

The monthly F&O expiry often leads to increased price swings as participants adjust open positions, potentially amplifying short term fluctuations across indices and stocks.

FPI Activity Shows Signs of Improvement​

Foreign investor participation has shown encouraging signs.

According to data from the National Securities Depository Limited, foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers on nine of the last sixteen trading sessions up to February 20.

Total FPI investments through exchanges stood at Rs 14,177.66 crore during this period. In addition, Rs 2,733.89 crore was invested in the primary market, taking overall FPI investment for February so far to Rs 16,911.55 crore.

Market Outlook for the Week Ahead​

With global trade concerns, domestic macroeconomic data releases, and derivatives expiry converging in the same week, analysts expect heightened volatility in the Indian stock market.

However, stock specific action is likely to continue, with investors closely tracking both global cues and domestic economic signals to determine near term direction.