Gold Enters Structural Repricing Phase, May Hit USD 6,000 in 12 Months: Motilal Oswal

Mumbai, February 26: Gold’s long term trajectory remains firmly positive as global de dollarization, rising fiscal stress and escalating geopolitical tensions reshape the financial order, according to a new report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

In its latest Precious Metals Quarterly Report, the brokerage said gold has crossed the USD 5,000 per ounce mark in early 2026, marking one of the strongest bullish phases in modern history. The firm believes the rally signals the beginning of a structural repricing phase and not merely a cyclical upswing.

Gold Price Outlook: USD 6,000 in 12 Months, USD 7,500 Medium Term​

The brokerage expects Comex gold to settle near USD 6,000 per ounce over the next 12 months. On the domestic front, this translates to approximately Rs 1.85 lakh per 10 grams. In the medium term, prices could potentially move toward USD 7,500 per ounce if geopolitical tensions and fiscal pressures intensify further.

Navneet Damani, Head of Research, Commodities at the firm, said the long term outlook for gold remains positive as global reserves diversify away from dollar centric assets and physical supply stays constrained. He noted that gold prices are likely to remain supported around and above USD 5,000 per ounce.

Shift in Investor Behaviour Supports Rally​

The report highlights that gold continued to advance between 2023 and 2025 despite positive real interest rates, a phase during which prices would typically decline. This divergence suggests growing investor concerns about rising global debt levels and long term fiscal and monetary stability.

Manav Modi, Analyst Commodities at the brokerage, said gold’s resilience despite positive real rates reflects a shift in investor perception. Real returns are increasingly viewed as temporary and policy driven, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold and reinforcing its role as a hedge against broader financial risks.

Geopolitical Tensions, Fiscal Stress Add Momentum​

The report points to rising tensions in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, along with renewed trade frictions and tariff disruptions, as key drivers of inflation and currency volatility. These developments have strengthened gold’s appeal as a neutral and reliable asset during periods of uncertainty.

The brokerage also emphasized that gold’s role as non sovereign money has gained importance amid growing fiscal stress and questions around monetary independence, triggering a structural shift in demand patterns.

Tight Supply, Central Bank Buying Provide Support​

Limited global mine output, shrinking inventories across major exchanges and rising production costs have kept physical supply tight, supporting elevated price levels.

Domestically, rupee depreciation and strong retail demand have added to the momentum, while exchange traded funds have witnessed renewed inflows after years of decline.

Central banks have remained consistent buyers, adding around 1,000 tonnes annually for four consecutive years to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on dollar based assets.

Motilal Oswal expects gold to remain well supported over the long term, driven by reserve diversification, constrained supply growth and sustained global uncertainty influencing investment behaviour.