Gold and silver prices remained stable on Friday as persistent geopolitical tensions supported safe haven demand, while a firm US dollar capped further gains.
Spot gold held steady at $5,187.39 per ounce after touching a three week high earlier this week. US gold futures for April delivery edged up 0.2% to $5,204.10 per ounce. Spot silver gained 0.6% to $88.81 per ounce, extending momentum after hitting a three week high on Wednesday.
Strong Dollar Limits Bullion Upside
The US dollar hovered near three week highs, making dollar denominated bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. The currency strength dampened fresh buying interest even as geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated.Market sentiment was also shaped by expectations around US monetary policy. Data showed that new applications for US jobless benefits rose slightly last week, while the unemployment rate held steady in February, indicating continued labor market stability.
Traders are currently pricing in three 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. However, improving economic sentiment and signs of resilience in growth have tempered expectations of aggressive early easing.
Technical analysis suggests gold is neutral in the $5,158 to $5,201 per ounce range, with a breakout likely to determine the next directional move. A decisive move above resistance could open the path toward $5,243 or higher.
US Iran Talks Keep Safe Haven Demand Intact
In Geneva, indirect talks between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme made progress, according to mediator Oman. However, discussions ended without a breakthrough. The absence of a concrete resolution, along with ongoing military posturing, kept geopolitical risks elevated and continued to underpin demand for safe haven assets such as gold.SEBI Revises Gold and Silver ETF Valuation Framework
Amid elevated bullion prices, the Securities and Exchange Board of India has directed mutual funds to value their physical gold and silver holdings using domestic stock exchange spot prices from April 1.Under the revised framework, fund houses can rely on polled spot prices from recognized exchanges that settle physically delivered bullion derivatives contracts. This replaces the earlier practice of using London Bullion Market Association benchmarks for valuing exchange traded fund holdings.
The change comes at a time when domestic and international prices have intermittently diverged due to currency fluctuations, import dynamics, and local demand trends. By aligning ETF valuation with domestic spot prices, fund net asset values are expected to better reflect Indian market conditions, especially during periods of heightened volatility and strong retail participation.
Structural Repricing Narrative Gains Traction
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, in its latest Precious Metals Quarterly Report, described gold’s rally as a structural repricing phase rather than a cyclical spike.The brokerage noted that gold crossed $5,000 per ounce in early 2026 and has since sustained levels above that mark. It expects Comex gold to approach $6,000 per ounce over the next 12 months, translating to roughly ₹1.85 lakh per 10 grams domestically. In a medium term scenario, prices could move toward $7,500 per ounce if geopolitical and fiscal pressures intensify.
According to the report, gold’s resilience between 2023 and 2025 despite positive real interest rates signals a shift in investor behaviour. Rising global debt, fiscal stress, reserve diversification away from dollar centric assets, and sustained central bank purchases estimated at around 1,000 tonnes annually for four consecutive years have underpinned demand.
The brokerage also highlighted tight global supply conditions, including limited mine output and shrinking inventories across major exchanges, as supportive factors.
Silver, while benefiting from safe haven flows, continues to track industrial demand and currency movements, keeping near term price action volatile.
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