New Delhi, April 2: China's official economic growth figures are inaccurate, and the country's economy is facing a major threat due to its growing bad debt and a rapidly aging population, a new report has said.
The Japanese news site, Nippon.com, cited estimates from the US think tank, Rhodium Group, which suggests that China's true economic growth is closer to 2.5–3.0 per cent, rather than the Chinese government's official GDP growth figures of 5 per cent for 2025.
It also cited some observers who believe that the country is currently experiencing essentially zero growth.
"Two major obstacles stand in the way of China's economic future: massive amounts of bad debt stemming from a bursting bubble, and an inverted population pyramid resulting from low birth rates and an aging population," the report said.
The report highlighted signs of deflation, noting that "there are no signs of it ending," with real growth figures outpacing nominal growth for three years.
Furthermore, it noted a 1.7 per cent drop in total government revenues in 2025, marking the first decline since the COVID-19 shock in 2020.
A large stock of non-performing loans, far larger than Japan's post-bubble burden, is nearing a bursting credit bubble scenario.
"After the bubble economy burst, Japan's economic institutions had to deal with roughly ¥100 trillion worth of bad debts. China's non-performing loans, however, are estimated to be equivalent to about ¥1.5 quadrillion," the report warned.
It mentioned visible signs of economic strain in social media and on the ground, with shopping streets lined with shuttered shops, empty shopping malls, and homeless people scavenging for food and sleeping in underpasses.
It also argued that there are economists in China who estimate the youth jobless rate at over 40 per cent. China's population dipped from its peak in 2021, with 7.92 million births in 2025 from 15 million up until 2018.
The media house pinned the blame of China’s dire economic state on President Xi Jinping’s economic mismanagement by supporting stronger, better, and bigger state-owned enterprises and suppressing innovators.
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